TBG's 2008 NFL Pickin' - Week #4

Last Week:
Aaron: 13-3 (0-1 vs. the spread)
Joe: 9-7 (0-1 vs. the spread)
Tom: 9-7 (0-1 vs. the spread)

Season To Date:
Aaron: 31-16 (0-3 vs. the spread)
Joe: 30-17 (2-1 vs. the spread)
Tom: 26-21 (1-2 vs. the spread)

Atlanta at Carolina
Aaron: The Falcons are 2-0 at home against teams with Charmin-soft defenses. Here the Panthers are at home with a defense more like motel toilet paper. Scratchy. Pick: Carolina

Joe: This is kind of cool. Usually it takes me half a season to find my pick them at home, avoid on the road team. Thanks, Atlanta! Though please fall behind early and throw the ball to Roddy White a lot. Thanks! Pick: Carolina

Arizona at N.Y. Jets
Aaron: The "big news" out of Monday night's Jets' loss was that Brett Favre sustained an ankle injury and was now walking with a slight limp. As opposed to the last several seasons when his gait was consistently sure and steady like any other 80-year-old. Pick: Arizona

Joe: Speaking of 80-year-olds and Arizona, here's where I should be crafting a tight, smart little joke involving Brett Favre and the words "suspend his campaign." But then yesterday I met a woman on the street who gave me a bracelet, and ... ah, hell. Never mind. Pick: Arizona

Cleveland at Cincinnati
Aaron: The Bengals played with some season-saving urgency last week vs. the Giants, while the Browns continued to prove me right regarding their fluky fluktitude from last season. You keep right on believing in 'em, Joe. Pick: Cincinnati

Joe: I don't have the first idea what you're talking about. Pick: Cincinnati

Minnesota at Tennessee
Aaron: Kerry Collins is a perfectly serviceable quarterback who is capable of keeping his team competitive in the early going. The Vikings D is known to kill serviceable QBs and eat their young. Pick: Minnesota

Joe: I love the idea that people are talking themselves into the Titans as a viable Super Bowl contender. Love that. I'm not saying the Bills are (because, you know, they're not), but it's weird that people think Tennessee isn't in the exact same boat. They are. Pick: Minnesota

Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Aaron: The Pack was certain for a brief in-season swoon at some point, so it might as well be now. With any luck the Mets will snatch the NL wildcard from the Brewers on the same day, sending Wisconsin into the kind of depression that Mets fans will feel a week from now. Pick: Tampa Bay

Joe: Brian Griese can throw 100 passes this week if he wants to, but that suddenly-crappy running game and a Packers team that can score enough on a tough Bucs D will add up to nothing good. Pick: Green Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans
Aaron: The Saints' defense is populated with more bloated, decomposing corpses than their wide receiver corps. Bet'cha thought I was going for the tired streets of New Orleans/Katrina reference there, eh? Wait, I guess I just did. Timely. Pick: New Orleans

Joe: I'm really tempted to go with the Niners here against a depleted Saints team. But 3-1 seems a bit much for JT O'Sullivan and the Little People (quake in fear, Berman), and Reggie Bush is suddenly looking scary again (I doubt it's a coincidence that Horseface Kardashian has been sequestered on Dancing with the Stars for the last few weeks). Pick: New Orleans

Houston at Jacksonville
Aaron: The primary difference between the Matt Schaub era and the David Carr era in Houston? There were never any red squiggly lines under Carr's last name when I typed it into MS Word over the years. Pick: Jacksonville

Joe: Really disappointed in this Texans team. I thought they had more self-respect than this. I really did. No, no, Matt Schaub, don't apologize to me. You're gonna have to apologize to yourself. Pick: Jacksonville

Denver at Kansas City
Aaron: It says a lot about how much Larry Johnson's skills have eroded that the Chiefs have more faith in the miserable arm of JV QB Tyler Thigpen, than LJ's decaying legs. Pick: Denver

Joe: Denver's a weird team, man. I can't remember the last team that was both legitimately frightening in a "crap, I see they're on the Bills' schedule" way and yet also have absolutely no business not being 1-2 instead of 3-0. Which means they'll only beat KC by, like 10. Pick: Denver

Buffalo at St. Louis
Aaron: In his ESPN.com column this week, Bill Simmons challenged Bills fans to prove the locals support their team in the face of relocations rumors. Mr. Reid, your move. Pick: Buffalo

Joe: Don't make Buffalonians spell out "Go Bills" in roast beef sandwiches along the 90, Bill. They'll do it, and it'll be crazy unsanitary. But seriously, I'm extremely biased, but that was the bullshittiest thing I've seen written on the internet in quite a while. The whole internet. First of all, Toronto is a terrible market for anything but hockey and Bill knows that but he's being disingenuous to suit his point. Second, since when has Mr. "I Write From the Fan's Perspective" decided to take up the cause of franchises moving for greener financial pastures and fucking over good and enthusiastic fans? And third of all, if he mentions Vincent Gallo in relation to Buffalo again, I'm going to fly out to L.A. and rip out his nasally vocal cords. Our signature local celebrity is Chad Michael Murray, okay? That shit was intra-divisional bitterness from a crybaby Pats fan, nothing more. Pick: Buffalo

San Diego at Oakland
Aaron: The Raiders got dismantled by a good Denver team, spanked the awful Chiefs and had the Bills on the ropes last week before the Oakland defense caught an earlier flight home with four minutes to go in the game. The thought of San Diego's offense against my team's D is…not finna be pretty. Pick: San Diego

Joe: I hear LT does well, historically, against the Raiders. Sounds like a good idea. Pick: San Diego

Washington at Dallas
Aaron: I don't happen to think Tony Romo is a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback yet, but I'm reasonably sure he's a "beat the Redskins at home-caliber" quarterback. Pick: Dallas

Joe: I don't mean, to harp, but if Tony Romo isn't a Super Bowl-caliber QB, then who is? Hell, Eli Manning is a Super Bowl-caliber QB. And I hear he's TERRIBLE. Look, I don't like the fact that Jerry Jones is positioned to get to another Super Bowl any better than anyone else (much less with Bubba Gump as his head coach), but the Cowboys are fuckin' good. They just are. Pick: Dallas

Philadelphia at Chicago
Aaron: Donovan McNabb has taken some ferocious hits in the first three weeks and now Brian Westbrook is nicked up, too. Looking back, I see that I've made a lot of screwy picks this week, so I'll take the Eagles, but this stinks of the Bears winning a field goal fest. Pick: Philadelphia

Joe: Don't think you can fool me into backing Kyle Orton that easily. Pick: Philadelphia

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Aaron: An uninspired win against Cleveland and a loss to the Eagles has turned the Steelers from "AFC Champion" to "also-ran" in the eyes of the always-reputable sports media. Screw you, Mike Lupica… Pick: Pittsburgh

Joe: Losing Willie Parker hurts. Maybe while he's on the sidelines this week he can undertake an investigation as to the whereabouts of Santonio Holmes. Pick: Pittsburgh


The Sure Thing Suicide Spread

San Diego Chargers (-7) at Oakland Raiders

Buffalo at St. Louis (+8.5) (the spread last week was too much at home, and it's too much again on the road; we're still trying to be plucky underdogs, Vegas, damn!)