2009 NFL Pickery - Week #11

Last Week:

Aaron: 10-5
Tom: 10-5
Joe: 9-6

Season to Date:

Tom: 95-49
Joe: 94-50
Aaron: 91-53


Miami at Carolina

Aaron: Can we all agree that the Panthers upset win over Atlanta last week carries slightly less weight than the whole "Dolphins lost their best player for the rest of the season" thing? Pick: Carolina

Joe: Everything seems to be pointing to Carolina here. Ronnie Brown's injury. The Panthers have been running the ball very effectively as of late. They're at home. Which kind of makes it exactly the kind of game Miami would win just to fuck with me. It's all about me. Pick: Miami


Indianapolis at Baltimore

Aaron: 4...3...1. Those are the margins of victory for the Colts over the past three weeks. The next number in this random pattern would be something like -2 and random patterns - while easy to manipulate - don't lie. Pick: Baltimore

Joe: While it's tough to argue with academia, I figure I'm gonna let this Colts thing ride until it doesn't. Pick: Indianapolis


Seattle at Minnesota

Aaron: Since Mike Holmgren is no longer coaching the Seahawks, what tired Brett Favre storyline will be overreported come Sunday? No fair saying "all of them". Pick: Minnesota

Joe: Oh, like they won't bring that up anyway. Minnesota's leisurely sleigh ride to the playoffs continues. Pick: Minnesota


New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Aaron: Are the Saints actually going to have to lose a game before anyone realizes their entire defense is nothing more than extremely vivid Pixar animation? Pick: New Orleans

Joe: Um...yes? They'll probably have to lose for the first time all season before we start picking them apart. Pick: New Orleans


Atlanta at N.Y. Giants

Aaron: Is it too late to make the "With all the RB injuries in Atlanta, has anyone checked on the availability of Ironhead Heyward?" joke? Too late or too soon? Pick: NY Giants

Joe: Aw. Jamal Anderson weeps at being excluded from your little joke there. In other news, the loser of this one is looking at a seriously uphill climb to the playoffs. I'd like to think the Giants are just, at base, a better team, but...are they? Pick: NY Giants


Washington at Dallas

Aaron: During a schizophrenic, unpredictable Cowboys season, we can all agree on one thing: they're going to win on Thanksgiving Day. Here, too. Pick: Dallas

Joe: Well, Washington got their one crazy win last week (it's taking everything I have not to mention that I totally called it, even if I pussed out of picking it that way). They can pack it in for the season now. Pick: Dallas


Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Aaron: All that's missing from the Steelers' last few weeks of their lame-duck "defending" championship reign are Presidential pardons for past player transgressions. All is forgiven, Kordell Stewart. Pick: Pittsburgh

Joe: They lost one game in their last six. I wouldn't start building the Mike Tomlin Presidential Library yet. Pick: Pittsburgh


Buffalo at Jacksonville

Aaron: Wait, so...Dick Jauron was the problem all along? Huh. Well, then...problem solved. I guess. Pick: Jacksonville

Joe: Dick Jauron was certainly A problem. The fact that we have a good dozen more doesn't mean he didn't need to get fired. Soon comes the fun part where any head coach worth a damn turns down the job because they're too pussy to deal with snow. Pick: Jacksonville


Cleveland at Detroit

Aaron: Are we going to be allowed to bet on "how soon after the regular season" that the Browns fire Eric Mangini? I assume bettors will lay action in 15 minute increments after Cleveland's last game. Pick: Detroit

Joe: Rather than make yet another "hasn't the city of Detroit been through enough?" joke, maybe we should all consider if Detroit had this coming. You can't just allow Andre the Giant to get bodyslammed in your city and have no consequences. Pick: Detroit


San Francisco at Green Bay

Aaron: Depending on the weather, this one has a chance to be uglier than last week's Niners-Bears game - which I didn't see because it was on the NFL Network. But, the highlights? Unwatchable. Pick: San Francisco

Joe: Green Bay needs to win a couple more games before the next time they let their fans down. Pick: Green Bay


Arizona at St. Louis

Aaron: Kurt Warner. Jesus. The Cardinals used to play in St. Louis. I stared at this game for 10 minutes and couldn't find a way to make those three things into a blurb. Pick: Arizona

Joe: And Kurt Warner used to play for St. Louis. And now all he does is PRAY to St. Louis. ...Wait, he's not Catholic, is he? DAMN IT, it's harder than I thought. Pick: Arizona


Cincinnati at Oakland

Aaron: On one hand, I'm pleased that JaMarcus Russell has been benched in favor of, well, anyone else. On the other hand, I'm pleased that JaMarcus Russell has been benched in favor of, well, anyone else. Pick: Cincinnati

Joe: Cedric Benson picked an awfully cushy week to get hurt. Pick: Cincinnati


San Diego at Denver

Aaron: Before I recanted and hopped on the Broncos' bandwagon, I told you guys that they were frauds! Pick: San Diego

Joe: This feels like a "not so fast" game. Pick: Denver


N.Y. Jets at New England

Aaron: Not only will the Pats win - and win big - but, this game will kickstart the "Pats are pissed after the Colts debacle and taking it out on everyone in their path" season-ending storyline. Yawn. Pick: New England

Joe: Have you ever played video games against one of your really unbearably competitive friends who'd lose and totally sulk and overreact and flip out and throw the controller? And while you wish the controller wasn't broken, it was still pretty satisfying to see them all bent out of shape? Yeah, the Jets are that video game controller. Pick: New England


Philadelphia at Chicago

Aaron: Dear San Diego...the notion that NBC would "flex" out this game in favor of Chargers/Broncos is stupid. Eagles + Bears = national following. Chargers + Broncos = two teams I hate, hate, hate. Pick: Chicago

Joe: I hate both these teams. Pick: Philadelphia


Tennessee at Houston

Aaron: Vince Young is essentially running a four-play Tecmo Bowl offense right now, so let's all stop using words like "resurgent" to describe the Titans right now, K? Pick: Houston

Joe: At the very least, Vince Young has muted that "Jeff Fisher might get fired" crazy talk. Pick: Houston


Confidence Pickin' (with current scores)

Joe (31): Steelers (-10) CHIEFS; BUCS (+11) over Saints; Bills (+8.5) over JAGS

Aaron (27): Bengals (-9.5) over RAIDERS; Chargers (-3) over BRONCOS; VIKINGS (-10.5) over Seahawks

Tom (21): Titans +4.5 over TEXANS; Bengals (-9.5) over RAIDERS; Steelers (-10) over CHIEFS

2009 Final A'ssessment: Outfielders

Scott Hairston – LF (.236/.262/.391)

2009 Grade: D-

The Good: Well, let's see. SP Sean Gallagher – who'd done all he could to qualify for my most hated A's list – was traded to the Padres as part of a package for Hairston. And, Hairston's presence gave me the first light-skinned African-American A's player to look up to since Darren Lewis' cup o' coffee in 1990.

The Not-So-Good: Scott Hairston is a fourth outfielder. This was the freakin' title of the post I wrote on the night we traded for him. Was our boy-genius General Manager surprised when Hairston finished with a 230 point difference in OPS between LHPs (.920) and RHPs (.694)? On September 9, in the span of about 90 seconds, Hairston failed to hustle out of the box on an easy fly ball that was dropped and then was doubled off first, when Chicago's middle infielders suckered him on a popup. Do. Not. Want. (Back.)


Rajai Davis – CF (.305/.360/.423)

2009 Grade: B+

The Good: Lifting liberally from my season-ending 10 Thoughts post - Davis enjoyed a career year at the age of 29 after spending his entire big league career as a 5th outfielder, defensive replacement and pinch-runner. After a miserable start in which all 800 remaining A's fans were calling for his release, Davis hit .323/.374/.459 with 34 stolen bases in his final 89 games.

The Not-So-Good: Davis posted an ungodly – and unlikely to be repeated – .366 BABIP. He only walked 29 times in 432 PAs and his SB% was a barely acceptable 77%. Davis also experienced several maddening, unfocused moments on the base paths and in the field that belied a player whose primary skill set is speed and defense.


Ryan Sweeney – RF (.293/.348/.407)

2009 Grade: B-

The Good: From June 27 through the end of the season, Sweeney hit .328/.378/.476. Perhaps more importantly, for the first time in his professional career, Sweeney hit LHPs at a perfectly respectable clip (.268/.344/.375). On defense, he made several highlight reel – and some home run-robbing – catches that generated the usual "he should've won a Gold Glove!" nonsense from people who either (1) take the meaningless GG award too seriously or (2) don't know that "merit" is the sixth or seventh most important qualifying criteria for the award. That said; he was pretty goddam good.

The Not-So-Good: Many fans and members of the media remain convinced that Sweeney's going to develop 20-home run power someday. He set a career-high with…six home runs last season. I remain skeptical. He missed 2 ½ weeks with a sprained MCL. In two seasons with the A's, he's accumulated an assortment of relatively minor injuries that could hasten his aging process.


And, the rest…: I can't lie…I take great pride in the fact that Eric Patterson's spindly build resembles my own. He caught fire at the tail end of the season and showed signs of finally figuring out his game is the same as Willie Mays Hayes': hit the ball on the ground, leg out hits, befriend Rick Vaughn. It was another lost season for Travis Buck, who publicly contradicted the team over the severity of an injury in late May and was summarily banished to the minors. 27-year-old Matt Carson made his Major League debut. He hit his first MLB home run on September 21 in Oakland. The fan who caught it allegedly asked for $10,000 in exchange.

Oh, what a year.

TBG TV: FOX's Animation Domination – 11/15/2009

Sunday's Rankings (5-3-2-1 scoring)

(1) Family Guy ("Quagmire's Baby") - The Quagmire character is a one-note d**k joke ("Giggedy!") that's worn thin in recent seasons, so it was cool to see the writers do something with him other than…well, d**k jokes. OK, OK…fewer d**k jokes. Despite the clichéd "bachelor meets baby" premise, all the little things worked – especially, the strip club sequence where every dancer's actions reminded Quagmire of his daughter and the through-the-window adoption scene. Wasn't feeling the "Bitch Stewie/Brian" secondary story.

(2) American Dad! ("Shallow Vows") - Would've won the night with me if not for two things: (1) the unfunny "we left blind Stan behind" running gag and (2) the cop-out ending with both Stan and Francine agreeing to settle and remain shallow. The rest was mostly gold, though. Francine tabling her beauty regimen for two weeks to teach Stan a lesson is totally something Mrs. Bootleg would do. And, like Stan, I'd run out on her if she did so. And, hey, the Steve, Hayley and Klaus side stories didn't p*ss me off. Progress!

(3) The Cleveland Show ("Ladies' Night") - Probably not a good sign when this episode's recurring "Moon River!" gag was lifted from an episode of Family Guy which lifted it from Fletch. The assortment of sexist potshots – and the one jab at Grey's Anatomy – scored only lightly scattered laughter between me and Mrs. Bootleg. Ditto for the entire Rallo/Cleveland, Jr. student body president subplot. Was it wrong for me to laugh at the "Jew/nerd" bit? Yeah, I prolly shouldn't have brought it up.

(4) The Simpsons ("The Devil Wears Nada") - Instantly forgettable. Not an awful episode, just…forgettable. This was also one of those episodes where almost every scene and storyline has been done before in Simpsons years past. Homer's overworked and sleep-deprived? Just like the time he worked at the Kwik-E-Mart. Homer's working for a taskmaster boss NOT named Mr. Burns for one episode? Just like the time he worked for a taskmaster boss named Mr. Burns for 440-some episodes. Marge almost cheats on Homer, but doesn't? Yeah, you get the point.

MVP: I can't imagine I'll have too many more opportunities to hand out the night's honors to Glen Quagmire. Who knew that ass-jawed rapist actually had a heart?

Quote of the Night: "Tonight, we're doin' facials!" – Quagmire (Family Guy)


Current Standings

American Dad! – 17
The Simpsons – 16
The Cleveland Show – 16
Family Guy – 16

2009 Final A'ssessment: Infielders

Daric Barton – 1B (.269/.372/.413)

2009 Grade: C+

The Good: He appeared to play above his assortment of earned labels (bust, brain damaged) and right back into the team's favor. Despite spending April and May at Triple-A, then serving as Jason Giambi's defensive replacement during a brief call-up in June, the A's put him at first base – and left him alone – after Giambi was mercifully euthanized. Barton hit .287/.386/.434 after being recalled in July. In September (.871 OPS) I can't say I've ever seen him look better: working deep counts, going the other way.

The Not-So-Good: Barton's career OPS in the three meaningless Septembers he's played is .944. His career OPS for every other month of his Major League career is .617. Without much power in the current lineup and only one legit home run-hitting prospect (1B Chris Carter) in the minor league pipeline, the A's can't have much patience with Barton if he scuffles out of the gate again. Carter KILLED pitching in the minors last season (.992 OPS in 650 plate appearances!) and it can't be a good omen that Barton's #2 age comp is…this guy.


Mark Ellis – 2B (.263/.305/.403)

2009 Grade: C-

The Good: Ellis rescued his season with a lights-out seven-week stretch (July 26 – September 12) in which he batted .340 and slugged .525. It would seem he's all but cemented his Teflon status with A's beat writers as Ellis' overwhelmingly "not-so-good" season was ignored by the local media in favor of the usual "hustling clubhouse leader who plays the game the right way while getting the most out of his abilities" platitudes.

The Not-So-Good: When Ellis' aforementioned seven-week hot streak began, his OPS was .595 – positively Bobby Crosbian. After the "streak" ended, Ellis posted a .508 OPS for the rest of the season. With the exception of a decent 2007 season, Ellis has been consistently subpar at the plate since 2006. His once-stellar glove work dropped noticeably, too.


Cliff Pennington – SS (.279/.342/.418)

2009 Grade: B-

The Good: For the second straight season, the A's publicly declared that Pennington would be the starting shortstop down the stretch – and this year, the team didn't inexplicably change their minds 24 hours later! He's 25-years-old with a career .720 OPS in the minors. Though not a prospect, he was fun to watch when he ripped off an occasional hot week at the plate. And, listening to his Shawon Dunston-like hose pop the first baseman's glove – echoing throughout an empty ballpark – is one of my favorite memories of the season.

The Not-So-Good: When it comes to player development, the A's seem to form opinions and hang labels before they actually see a player develop. If the team had any real faith in Pennington, why'd they sign Orlando Cabrera last offseason AND tolerate Cabrera's unfocused, indifferent attitude during the season? Pennington's respectable small sample size should've earned him – at the very least – a legit look next spring. But, a larger sample size of precedence has the A's jerking him around.


Adam Kennedy – 3B (.289/.348/.410)

2009 Grade: C

The Good: Acquired in early May, Kennedy was hotter'n fish grease for a few weeks. On May 31, he was hitting .390/.462/.622 and had convinced some of the A's more slow-witted fans that he was NOT a declining presence at the plate or in the field. In all seriousness, though, Kennedy did seem to carry weight in the clubhouse – most notably during a pointed between innings chat with immature SP Gio Gonzalez after he gave up like 100 runs in two innings.

The Not-So-Good: From June 1 on, Kennedy's OPS was .697. We had Cristian Guzman batting in the top third of our order for four months. He still can't hit LHPs (.241/.303/.333) and his defense at third base – admittedly, not his natural position – was so bad that even the A's beat writers (who stick up for EVERY player) made one or two passive-aggressive mentions of it late in the season when no one was reading the game reports anymore.


And, the rest…: It took 15 seasons, but Nomar Garciaparra managed to supplant Steve Sax as the worst "former All-Star middle infielder" free agent signee in A's history. 26-year-old 1B Tommy Everidge finally made it to The Show for two dozen games. Tommy Everidge…this guy. Hmmm… Hey, only 100 days remain until A's fans are inundated with "Eric Chavez is in the best shape of his LIFE" lies headlines! Well, I guess this is "goodbye", Bobby Crosby. Whenever an A's player is so comically fooled on a 2-0 change-up – and AFTER the pitcher has just walked the bases loaded – I'll think of you.

TBG Eats: The Monster Breakfast Burrito from Los Primos

Current Weight: 168.0 lbs.

I used to be a big breakfast guy. B-I-G. In every sense of the word.

My mother sent us off to elementary school with bellies full of homemade French toast, waffles or omelets and a variety pack of cured breakfast meats. On weekends, she'd find time to add home fries.

As we moved on through middle school and into high school, my mom retired from daily desayuno duty. Undeterred, my brother and I satiated our enormous AM food fix by splitting one half-dozen donuts from Manna's -- cruelly located across the street from our apartment -- or with one of the recently-introduced microwavable Jimmy Dean biscuit sandwiches. 20 years ago, those cholesterol bombs were the size of a shoebox.

These days, my breakfast consists of an apple or strawberry cereal bar and two full travel-size cups of black coffee. Huge breakfasts now make me feel like I'm on the verge of childbirth, so I only indulge after one of my increasingly rare evenings of moderate-to-heavy drinking (Why hello there, Christmas party season! Has it been a year, already?")

Regular readers of this lightly-read blog might remember that I've had some infrequent, isolated sinus issues this year. Two weeks ago, I met with an ENT specialist who informed me that the single retention cyst in my sinus cavity has invited its girlfriend to move in -- the two of them living in sin within the spacious confines of my own skull.

The doctor wanted to be "aggressive" in prescribing a treatment. In his most serious voice, he told me about a steroid called prednisone. In MY most serious voice, I told him that I'd already been prescribed prednisone. Six months ago. It messed up my stomach, screwed up my sleep and left a chemical taste in my mouth for several hours after the initial ingestion.

His response: "Let's double the dosage!" He convinced me that the drugs were pretty much my last non-surgical option and strongly recommended I eat a huge breakfast every morning to better absorb the impact of the prednisone. For the most part, I've ignored the doctor's admonition. For the most part, I've paid for it. As I posted to Twitter on the fifth day of my steroid regimen: If Barry Bonds' insides reacted the same way mine are then America should understand why he was so mean.

So, with my stomach in a state of surrender, I'm hitting it with some hole-in-the-wall Mexican food to make it feel better. Wait...what?

Los Primos is a San Diego-based mini-chain with 15 restaurants in California. They've got about 5% more polish than the hundreds of other less-established Mexican spots; which is to say their three-legged "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" pinball game in the corner actually works. On this 70-degree Sunday morning, they were doing brisk business.

I ordered the $4.49 "Monster" Breakfast Burrito. Ham, bacon, potatoes, scrambled eggs and cheese wrapped in a ginormous flour tortilla. I added four single-servings of their hot, smoky chipotle salsa. Unlike many breakfast burritos, Los Primos' "Monster" isn't 98% eggs. The saltiness of the bacon and ham hit you in the first bite, with just enough eggs to cut the sodium, somewhat. The potatoes are crisp and plentiful, increasing the black hole density of this bad boy. The salsa isn't just superfluous heat, either. It's plenty hot, but with a wonderful roasted flavor that compliments every ingredient within.





Through and through, in every bite, you're getting meat-eggs-potatoes. There's a "complete balanced breakfast" joke somewhere in here, but those of you who didn't grow up on Saturday morning sugar-coated cereal commercials wouldn't get it. Hours later, I still felt satisfied. Thanks, doctor.

I assume we'll deal with the eventual angioplasty at a later date.

Grade: 5 (out of 5)

30 A's in 30 Days – The Recap Show

A reader whose work I enjoy writes:

Hi Aaron. I found your blog through your link on Baseball Reference. This is a little late, but I loved your '30 A's 30 Days' feature. Now I have to ask how your over/under predictions turned out? You looked pretty good from the handful I knew from memory. Keep up the good work.

I'm pretty sure this lightly-read blog is exempt from accountability, as I was grandfathered in under the recently enacted "Deadspin Proviso". But, since I just finished punching the numbers into an Excel spreadsheet – and, liked the results – let's see how my statistical guesses from March stood up.

For those of you who inexplicably aren't reading my material from eight months ago, here's a quick refresher. Back in March, I lifted MLB Network's "30 Teams in 30 Days" concept and turned it into a season preview of sorts for the 2009 Oakland A's. I profiled 30 players and included an "over/under" prediction based on their projected OPS (for the hitters) and ERA (for the, uh…throwing guys).

Of the 30 A's who were profiled, two (SP Justin Duchscherer and RP Joey Devine) missed the entire season due to injuries and another (17-year-old phenom Michael Ynoa) didn't have a projection to begin with. That leaves us with 12 pitchers and 15 hitters.

I guessed the correct over/under on eight of the 12 pitchers. Most of their individual preseason ERA projections were pure lunacy (a 3.66 ERA for RP Santiago Casilla and his batting practice catalog of crap?!), so I wasn't actually going out on any limb. I will, however, pat my own damn back for believing in SPs Brett Anderson (projected ERA: 4.71, actual ERA: 4.06), Trevor Cahill (P: 4.82, A: 4.63) and Dallas Braden (P: 4.15, A: 3.89) before any of 'em threw a pitch in 2009 and taking the under.

As for the hitters, I went 9 for 15. Eight months after the fact, I still can't believe I took the over on 3B/DL Eric Chavez's projected .758 OPS. I guessed the over on 1B Jason Giambi (P-OPS: .823) and DH Nomar Garciaparra (P-OPS: .749), but theirs was an expedited decomposing that hardly anyone saw. I took the under on Jack Cust and his actual OPS was more than 50 points less than his projection. Matt Holliday only saw a five point drop between projected and actual, but I took the under and I'm countin' it as a win.

And, shout outs to additional "overs" I nailed – CF Rajai Davis for your unexplainable breakout campaign and 1B Daric Barton for another one of your productive Septembers in a meaningless season. Much love to two of my accurate "unders" – 3B Jack Hannahan and UT Bobby Crosby.

No matter how low we set that bar, you continually fail to reach it. Huzzah!

2009 NFL Pickery - Week #10

Last Week:

Tom: 10-3
Aaron 8-5
Joe: 7-6

Season to Date:

Joe: 85-44
Tom: 85-44
Aaron: 81-48

Chicago at San Francisco (Thursday)

Aaron: After last week's embarassing home defeat to self-proclaimed future Hall of Famer Vince Young, I'm ready to subscribe to the theory that the 49ers can't beat anyone outside the NFC West. I don't suppose San Francsico plays the Raiders this year? Damn. Pick: Chicago

Joe: Watch your step as I attempt to drop some football knowledge, but it seems to me the Bears are suckiest against the pass, while the Niners' strength is in their running game. BUT this could also be one of those inexplicable Vernon Davis 3 TD games. I say this it's ugly and unwatchable (which: lucky for us Time Warner folks, then) either way. Pick: San Francisco

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Aaron: This is one of those games in which I'd pick the opposite of Joe just for the sake of picking the opposite of Joe. I could see either team winning by two points or two TDs. And, iiiiiit's..."tails". Pick: Cincinnati

Joe: I'd be happy to oblige you here, given my mental block on the Bengals going 4-0 against the other teams in their division. (No, I don't consider the Browns an NFL team.) Pick: Pittsburgh

Atlanta at Carolina

Aaron: It's been a few years since I received my degree in marketing from The San Diego State University, but I'm pretty sure it helps to have a discernable chin if you're going to do shirtless Gillette ads, Matt Ryan. Pick: Atlanta

Joe: Stopping. Googling. Checking. ...Yeah, that's doing nothing for me. Certainly not like that Tony Gonzalez ad for PETA. Damn it, PETA! If only you didn't get so many celebrities naked, I'd be able to hate you more purely. Pick: Atlanta

Tampa Bay at Miami

Aaron: This week's SI details how the 2009 Bucs are headed in the right direction. They're on their third QB in as many months and fired their offensive coordinator before the season began. This isn't "direction". It's that leg-twitchy thing that happens to dead bodies in the movies. Pick: Miami

Joe: I'm still trying to get over the return of the tangerine uniforms last week. Sure, the color is fug, but I do kind of have a soft sport for that foppish Captain Morgan they had on their helmets. Pick: Miami

New Orleans at St. Louis

Aaron: We're ten weeks into the season. NO ONE is going to call Drew Brees on that Hulk Hogan haircut he's been rockin' all year? His receding-shag is the most underreported story of the year, people. Pick: New Orleans

Joe: I'm still fuming from the Rams defying my winless prediction for them from Week 1. Light 'em up, Saints. Light 'em up. Pick: New Orleans

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets

Aaron: A long time ago, I remember reading that the Buccaneers had lost something like 300 games in a row when the temperature at kickoff was below some...specific temperature. I assume that applies to all Florida teams on the road. Still. Pick: NY Jets

Joe: This is nothing but pure hunch, but I'm feeling like this might be time for the Jags' monthly 30-point loss. Pick: NY Jets

Buffalo at Tennessee

Aaron: It hurts my heart to see Titan fans fall back in love with Vince Young. He's Chris Brown with a Wonderlic score of six, Tennessee. He will hurt you again. Pick: Tennessee

Joe: Part of me wants to be contrarian here. And the Bills DO seem determined to deep-six their chances at a Top 10 draft pick. It's not out of the question that Vince Young could throw two INTs for touchdowns. Why not pick the Bills? Oh, right, because Chris Johnson is gonna run for 250 yards. Pick: Tennessee

Denver at Washington

Aaron: I'm enjoying the media-fueled notion that the league's "figured out" the Broncos. The Redskins chances here have increased from "none" to...what, exactly? Pick: Denver

Joe: Man, I was so close to picking the Redskins in one of those sense-defying upsets that tend to happen. Thanks for talking some sense into me, Cam. Pick: Denver

Detroit at Minnesota

Aaron: So did that whole "set the clocks back" thing push back Brett Favre's annual season-ending six-week self-immolation or are we all in agreement that it's just not happening this year? Pick: Minnesota

Joe: Remember, Favre didn't kill the Packers in his last season with them until the NFC championship game. Keep hope alive! Pick: Minnesota

Kansas City at Oakland

Aaron: In their Week #2 match-up, the Chiefs outgained the Raiders in total yards (409 to 166), while JaMarcus Russell completed less than 30% of his passes. And, the Raiders won! Ugh. Pick: Kansas City

Joe: I'd pledged to pick the opposite of you in this game no matter what. I'm sticking by that. while holding my nose. Pick: Oakland

Dallas at Green Bay

Aaron: Sure looks like Tony Romo has raised expectations again. Couple of good games, Cowboy fans have stopped calling for his head. I've seen this pattern before. Now, wet the bed, Romo. Wet it! Pick: Green Bay

Joe: Dallas's defense continues to look uncharacteristically strong. Green Bay's offensive line might as well be riding lawn mowers in Mississippi. This could get broken-bone-y for Aaron Rodgers. Pick: Dallas

Philadelphia at San Diego

Aaron: No team can turn a gift-wrapped, unimpressive win like last week's vs. the Giants into a season-turning burst of momentum like the Chargers. In January, you'll all be wondering why you believed in this team. Pick: San Diego

Joe: The two most "never as dead as you think they are" teams. Also the two most "never as dominant as you think they'll be" teams. Last time the Eagles came out west, they lost to Oakland. OAKLAND! Pick: San Diego

Seattle at Arizona

Aaron: Earlier this week, I stumbled across ESPN showing highlights of former Seahawk Shaun Alexander running roughshod over the league earlier this decade. Few things have made me feel older. It felt like 40 years ago. Pick: Arizona

Joe: How 'bout remembering that Alexander was drafted the same year Arizona drafted Thomas Jones. That stint almost seemed like it never happened. Pick: Arizona

New England at Indianapolis

Aaron: I don't know how much impact a head coach has in the NFL, but in their first head-to-head match-up, I'm leaning towards the hoodied curmudgeon over the Negro neophyte. Pick: New England

Joe: Damn it, Cam. All signs do seem to be pointing to New England here. The injuries for Indianapolis, the law of averages, my own personal Murphy's Law. And yet, I feel like I should be contrary here. Pick: Indianapolis

Baltimore at Cleveland

Aaron: Jesus, how long can the Browns milk national TV appearances off of their 10-6 season from a few years back? Pick: Baltimore

Joe: Oh, it's not like anybody watches Monday Night Football anymore. Pick: Baltimore


Confidence Pickin' (with current scores):

Joe (31): Falcons (-1.5) over PANTHERS; Ravens (-10.5) over BROWNS; VIKINGS (-16.5) over Lions

Aaron (27): Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS; Falcons (-1.5) over PANTHERS; CHARGERS (-1.5) over Eagles

Tom (21): Falcons (-1.5) over PANTHERS; DOLPHINS (-10) over Bucs; Bengals (+7) over STEELERS