TBG's 2008 NFL Pickin' - Week #11

Last Week:
Aaron: 10-4 (1-0 vs. the spread)
Joe: 10-4 (0-1)
Tom: 9-5 (1-0)

Season to Date:
Joe: 95-49 (5-5 vs. the spread)
Aaron: 94-50 (5-5)
Tom: 76-68 (6-4)


Denver at Atlanta
Aaron: It's only taken me eleven weeks to quit picking Denver on the road and believe the Falcons were really da bomb-diggity. I don't like to rush into these things. Pick: Atlanta

Joe: With Roddy White and Jerious Norwood on the ol' fantasy roster this week, let's hope the Broncs continue to be so friendly to opposing offenses. The good news for Denver fans is that a loss here won't really derail their plans for a 7-9 division title. Pick: Atlanta

Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Aaron: The Bucs' most impressive wins of the season have come at home and their three losses on the season were by a combined 11 points. They're the best team no one takes seriously. Stupid east coast bias. Pick: Tampa Bay

Joe: That's all well and good except that I'm not sure how they're able to run the ball in this game. Pick: Minnesota

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants
Aaron: Last week, even the referees joined the league's pro-Giants conspiracy. Damn it, Ravens, don't you even think about showing up when I'm finally picking the Giants. Pick: NY Giants

Joe: With four games upcoming against the old NFC East (Arizona included), this is the closest the Giants are gonna get to a trap game all year. Pick: Baltimore

Oakland at Miami
Aaron: With all of the Dolphins' trickeration, this has the makings of turning into the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. "He's spinning the ball on his finger! Just take it!" Pick: Miami

Joe: When the entire AFC East finishes at .500 or better and then must watch helplessly while an AFC West division winner waltzes into the playoffs with a record that could qualify for a top-10 draft pick ... it's just gonna suck, is what I'm saying. Pick: Miami

New Orleans at Kansas City
Aaron: For all you Dolphins fans clamoring for the heyday of Dan Marino's gaudy numbers and his team's accompanying 8-8 record, I give you Drew Brees and his Jive Time Band! Pick: New Orleans

Joe: After a hard-fought loss to the Jets, comeback loss to the Bucs, and last week's 2-point conversion miss against San Diego, the last three weeks, for Chiefs fans, has to have been incredibly frustrating and heartbreaking. Or it would have been if the seven weeks before that hadn't driven all Chiefs fans away from the sport. Pick: Kansas City

Detroit at Carolina
Aaron: Despite the return of Tony Romo AND a monster game from m'man Jay Cutler last week, I'm going with Jake Delhomme in my money league on Sunday. It's kinda lonely out on this limb. Pick: Carolina

Joe: Against Detroit, it's not much of a limb. Pick: Carolina [Aaron sez: "Yeah, Joe, that was kind of my point. Keep those quips coming!"]

Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Aaron: One thing about the Eagles: they've owned every awful team they've played this year. All of 'em. Look it up. Pick: Philadelphia

Joe: The Eagles looked better losing to the Giants last week than most teams do winning. I'm back to thinking they're playoff-caliber. Pick: Philadelphia

Chicago at Green Bay
Aaron: Bears fans…you're pining for the return of Kyle Orton! Tell your team to draft a damn quarterback next spring! Pick: Green Bay

Joe: The Packers' last three losses have been by a combined 7 points. Does that mean this is a 7-2 team in a 4-5 team's clothing or can they just not win the close ones? ANSWER ME! Pick: Green Bay

Houston at Indianapolis
Aaron: The Texans always give the Colts a good game, but Peyton Manning has strapped this team on his back and is singularly willing them through one last hurrah. Fight on, you goofy rube. Pick: Indianapolis

Joe: I kinda like Houston in this game, but I'll be damned if I go down with that ship again. Especially not on the road. Pick: Indianapolis

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Aaron: I refuse to play "guess when the undefeated team will lose". It's gonna happen. We all know it. I'm just not going to turn the next six weeks into "this is the week"! Pick: Tennessee

Joe: This ain't the week. Pick: Tennessee

Arizona at Seattle
Aaron: Nothing like the lack of bye weeks to make these picks more tedious than usual. Pick: Arizona

Joe: Matt Hasselbeck back under center makes a LOT of difference, and this is a team that's been getting closer and closer to winning lately. Pick: Seattle

St. Louis at San Francisco
Aaron: I love how the media continues to defend 49ers head coach Mike Singletary's me-first coaching/ranting and inept clock management with the "maybe he's TOO intense" explanation. Pick: San Francisco

Joe: I don't trust this spin that Singletary is a loose cannon. I mean, have you seen him? The man WEARS GLASSES! How can he not be mild-mannered? Pick: San Francisco

San Diego at Pittsburgh
Aaron: The city of San Diego has completely turned on the Chargers which can only mean that San Diego inexplicably shows up against Pittsburgh's banged-up offense. Snow is actually in the forecast, so I'll set my air conditioner to 68 and really accentuate the HD. Pick: San Diego

Joe: I'm nervous Pittsburgh's crappy pass protection has turned Ben Roethlisberger into Mr. Glass, but I still like them at home against San Diego's crappy defense. Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at Washington
Aaron: Tony Romo has to show he's healthy, while on the other side, Clinton Portis may be more hurt than he's letting on. Bet the under. Pick: Washington

Joe: The Redskins are at home, but with the names "Shaun Alexander" and "Rock Cartwright" prominently involved in their backfield this week, my money's on the rejuvenated Cowboys. Pick: Dallas

Cleveland at Buffalo
Aaron: Since Precocious Joe Reid declared in this very space "I do believe in this Bills team", Buffalo's gone 0-3. How 'bout one more syrupy proclamation for the road, Joe? Pick: Cleveland

Joe: For the record, I didn't give up on the Bills. The Bills gave up on me. Pick: Cleveland

The Sure-Thing Suicide Spread
Aaron: Tennessee at Jacksonville (+7)
Joe: Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati

The Tee-Ball Chronicles #4

The Fall 2008 campaign came to a close as your Pirates faced the hated Dodgers at high noon. I'd be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to Mother Nature for keeping the rain away all season AND for the 90-degree mercury readings during each of the last three games. Nothing goes better together than easily-distracted kids and the inside of an oven.

Team MVP: Gavin – During today's game, he stepped to the plate and actually called his shot, gesturing to left field with the bases loaded. Naturally, he walloped a grand slam to left and nearly passed the runners who were standing on first and second base. In a few years, I look forward to being one of the irrational parents who petitions for Gavin to be moved to a more advanced league – for the safety of the other kids – and thereby laying the foundation for his eventual sense of athletic entitlement.

Team Opposite of MVP: Matthew – By the end, even I couldn't dredge up generic words of encouragement for this 100 lb. pansy (and I was giving high fives to the kids who walked to first base). Honestly, I'm not sure what took longer during our games: watching Matthew hit the tee 10 straight times, instead of the ball; his endless infantile tantrums when he didn't get to the ball before one of our nine other fielders or my favorite "Matt Moment" of the season – when he ran right through my stop sign and did this to the runner ahead of him:



Proudest Moment – Second Runner-Up: During a postgame pizza fracas at a Persian-run joint called "Uncle Vinnie's", Jalen ate his ever-loving weight in what had to be the worst pizza ever made with human hands. I'm talking worse than Sbarro's at the mall, people. This place even managed to screw up chicken wings – grilling them in a skillet with olive oil and parsley!

Proudest Moment – First Runner-Up: If I had to guess, I'd say that the Pirates recorded three - maybe - four legitimate put-outs all season. Jalen was in on almost all of them, including a sweet unassisted play at first base a few weeks ago. Did that one play cancel out his 28 errors? Yes.

Proudest Moment – Winner: So, in the months prior to the start of tee-ball, I might've let slip to Jalen that I was quite the sandlot ballplayer back in the day. Just like those anonymous New York playground legends in basketball, you'll just have to take my word for it. Anyways, I'd taught myself to switch hit and Jalen has been begging for an opportunity to hit from the left side of the plate in a game…wait, I'll get through this…just like his dad. Two weeks ago, he got his chance and put a half-way decent swing on the ball hitting one of those ubiquitous "tee-ball singles" between first and second.

No, no…he's hasn't surpassed his old man yet, but in another twenty years I'd better watch out!

2008 Final A'ssessment – Outfielders

Jack Cust – LF

.231 BA .375 OBP .476 SLG

The Good News: Led the A's in every single meaningful offensive category and all for the low, low price of $410,000. I was in attendance at a game in Anaheim when Cust went 4 for 6, kicking off a white-hot month of May (1.004 OPS) and after a mid-season slump, he finished strong (.947 OPS in August/September, combined). In an otherwise miserable season, his atrocious glovework in the outfield provided some much needed comic relief. Honestly, in more than 25 years of watching the game, I've never seen more balls clang off of someone's glove. Hilarious!

The Bad News: If someone were to create one of those newfangled eight-character alphanumeric stats showing the inverse proportion between the intelligence of a team's front office and that of its fanbase, my A's would lead the league. Cust is absolutely a flawed player. He struck out 197 times in 2008, his slumps lasted months, not weeks and he's an abysmal outfielder. Unfortunately, A's fans – by and large – pointed to Cust as THE problem, when he was our best player last year.

2009 Outlook: All indications point to Cust sticking around for at least one more season with a permanent move to DH. Look, I'll concede that Cust has no business playing on a deep-pocketed contender that can afford a more complete player, but that ain't the A's. Cust is what he is and the things he can do on the diamond are more important than the things he can't.

Carlos Gonzalez – CF

.242 BA .273 OBP .361 SLG

The Good News: Heavily-hyped rookie made his Major League debut on May 30. Of Gonzalez's first 24 hits, 15 of them were for extra bases – including his first home run in the bigs, which turned into quite the soap opera for those of us who had nothing better to watch this summer. His defense was the real deal, as Gonzalez has crazy range and a terrific arm.

The Bad News: After his first full month in the Majors, Gonzalez was all kinds of awful at the plate (.232/.266/.318) the rest of the way. He really scuffled against southpaws, putting up a .454 OPS in 88 plate appearance. On the season, he walked just 14 times and was actually demoted to AAA-Sacramento just before rosters expanded in September. He came back after a three-week run through the Minor League playoffs, but the move was most likely a message that's since been punctuated with a ticket out of town.

2009 Outlook: Gonzalez was the centerpiece of the A's acquisition of Matt Holliday from Colorado. He alternated between raw phenom, overmatched bust and could-be greatness on almost a nightly basis, so your guess is as good as mine regarding where he ends up.

Ryan Sweeney – LF

.286 BA .350 OBP .383 SLG

The Good News: For whatever it's worth, Sweeney was probably the team's most exciting player last year. After coming over from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade, he played with a chip on his shoulder all season after CWS anchored him in Triple-A for two straight seasons. He hit RHP to the tune of .307/.369/.429, looked solid in the #2 spot and ran the bases better than any young Athletic in a long time.

The Bad News: After just one season in green and gold, Sweeney might be the most overrated player on the team by A's fans. The knocks on him in Chicago were a lack of power and low offensive ceiling. In '08, he didn't swing for power (.383 SLG) and was otherwise just barely a league-average hitter. LHPs gave him fits (.517 OPS), as he's probably going to need to be platooned if he can't turn that around.

2009 Outlook: As long as fans don't set the bar too high for this kid, I think he'll be a solid outfield stopgap for a few years. He reminds me a lot of a young Mark Kotsay, who didn't really come into his own until his mid-to-late 20s. Sweeney's got limitations and he'll never be a superstar, but he's fun to watch.


And, the Rest… In my write up on the A's infielders, I mentioned how vindictive A's management can be towards players who mouth off publicly. Well, Emil Brown drove in an insanely fluky 33 RBI through early May, before his luck evened out. He blasted the club over lack of playing time in early September and barely played the rest of the year. Rajai Davis is nothing more than a fifth outfielder, but he did hit close to .300 over the final two months of the season. He's a pinch-runner and defensive sub, nothing more. Travis Buck is a clone of Ryan Sweeney, who slumped horribly to start the season and spent most of '08 at Sacramento.

More Beer-y Goodness

Through intense market research, I've learned that a certain percentage of my readership drinks beer. If you're in that group, I strongly suggest you get on board with m'man Tom Daniels and his Friday Beer Snob postings.

After you've gone through his half-dozen or so posts on oatmeal stouts and pumpkin suds, come back on back here and look for my review of Stone Brewing's Sawyer's Triple.*

*Just make sure you wait a day or three before coming back here to read my review, as it has not been written.

Farewell to "Fire Joe Morgan"

Well, allow me to be the one billionth blogger – lightly-read or otherwise – to pass along my sadness at the announcement that the Fire Joe Morgan blog had come to an end.

In the last year or two, I've heard numerous discussions on the death of traditional sports writing – usually between two or three traditional sports writers – and all of them hit on the same talking points: the proliferation of blogs and other electronic media; the 24/7 news cycle and my personal favorite: "the dumbing down of America".

None of these talking heads EVER considers that the lazy and unoriginal Mad Libs-style of day-to-day newspaper game reports has turned off a populace who's finally grown wise to bad writing or the over-the-top praise heaped upon a very, very average player like David Eckstein or a very, very, very awful one like Darin Erstad.

(Also, sportswriters, I'm not sure it would help your struggling profession, but you might not wanna call your readership "dumb". Just sayin'.)

Anyways…Godspeed you grit-hating bitches, you. On the plus side, the end of FJM opens the door for every blogger who might want to pay tribute by completely cribbing the FJM style and call it "paying tribute".

WOO!

TBG's 2008 NFL Pickin' - Week #11

N.Y. Jets at New England (Thurs)


Aaron: For all of the talk about Brett Favre's renaissance (such as it is) and Matt Cassel coming into his own (well, I'm sure they're saying it in the Boston papers) the bottom line here is that if there's ONE team the Pats get up for from now until the end of time, it'll be the one coached by Eric Mangini. Pick: New England


Joe: Time's a-wasting, so I'll just say: if they tie 0-0, does that mean they have to forfeit their seasons? I'm gonna root for that and hope I'm right. Pick: New England

The Negro Elite Recommends…

Do you remember how John McCain and Sarah Palin spent so much time railing against those of us who went to college, live near an ocean and prefer our animal meat already dead and wrapped in supermarket cellophane? I spent much of the Presidential Campaign ignoring everything about the Presidential Campaign, but when this "elitist" label started kicking around, I spent more time than I'd care to share trying to wrap my mind around it.

Yeah, yeah…it's all political gamesmanship – I get that. It's just that I don't understand what's inherently wrong with being an elitist, particularly when this derisive appellation is being used as a means of telling people that they're better than me.

Well, I'll be damned if anyone from rural Ohio or bum-f*ck West Virginia is better than me. I live in America's Paradise (non-island division). I married a woman with an MBA. My baby-soft hands have never done a hard day's work in their life. I am an elitist and, yes, I'm better than the residents of the GOP's "real" America.

Anyways, over the past few months I stumbled across fivethirtyeight.com and became hooked during the waning weeks of the campaign process. While ostensibly a site for statistically-based polling analysis and state-by-state campaigning updates, the writers tackled all of the big stories with a greater fact-to-opinion ratio than MSNBC, CNN or Fox News. And, that's quite a raised bar, no?

In the past week, they've addressed some of the myths relating to the passage of California's controversial Proposition 8. Their insight on the African-American angle is pretty good stuff. Find time, if you can, to read their thoughts on the recent evolution of certain swing states to a more clearly defined blue/red status and the ongoing vote counts in Minnesota and Alaska.

Over in the Los Angeles Times – or should I say "Left Angeles Times" ahahahahhaha "NObama"! – Norah Vincent writes a compelling piece on NOT voting in this past election and what can only be described as "voter's remorse".

Finally, Newsweek has a ginormous seven-part piece on the entire Democratic and Republican campaigns from beginning to end. The whole thing is about two years long (in both time and text) but, it's absolutely terrific.

Just like me.