30 A's in 30 Days: 2011 Prediction

As a sports fan, I was an especially spoiled child.

I told this story a few years ago, so here's the abbreviated version: the 1980 Oakland Raiders were the first sports team I ever followed…and they went on to win the Super Bowl in January 1981. For reasons that can best be described as overly simplistic and kinda-sorta geographic, I became an Oakland Athletics fan – even though I was born and raised in Southern California and have never lived in the Bay Area – starting with the 1981 team.

Those A's began the season with 11 straight wins. 30 years later, I vividly remember them leading off an episode of This Week in Baseball in mid-April and the Sports Illustrated cover story (which I was able to afford with some of my birthday money).

The first baseball team I ever followed would finish the strike-stained 1981 regular season with MLB's second best overall record. They defeated Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. By the end of the 1980s, the A's were baseball's best team -- winning the World Series in 1989, along with three American League pennants and four division titles from 1988-92.

As a sports fan, my seven-year-old son Jalen has had a more challenging childhood.

The 2008 Oakland Athletics were the first team he ever followed. His first ever favorite player was... Bobby Crosby. And, since IF-OF Eric Patterson wore #4, my then four-year-old son began his odd bonds with whichever player's jersey matched his age (the next year Matt Moss Holliday and the remains of Nomar Garciaparra wore #5; in 2010, Jalen became intimately acquainted with the triple-A Sacramento River Cats -- primary employers of OF Travis Buck who wore #6 during his brief stays in Oakland).

I want my son to have a team that he vividly remembers 30 years from now.

The 2011 Oakland Athletics could be that team.

Will they win the World Series? Probably not, but a lot can happen to an active roster between now and the end of October, so let's not think that far ahead.

This A's team is improved on offense with the additions of OF David DeJesus and OF Josh Willingham. A full season from OF Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot would set the table for a solid, if unspectacular, middle of the order. It's not a stretch to think C Kurt Suzuki will bounce back after a season in which he was miscast as the number three hitter and 1B Daric Barton is already one of the better number two hitters in the AL.

Oakland's defense is the best in the division. 2B Mark Ellis and SS Cliff Pennington are a terrific keystone combination, while Barton and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff handled the acres of foul territory at the Coliseum and vacuumed everything down the lines. Crisp is Gold Glove caliber in centerfield and should make up for some of Willingham's shortcomings in left field.

Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez are as good as any other top three starting pitchers in the American League. Dallas Braden isn't an ace -- and doesn't have to be here -- but, he's a perfectly cromulent back of the rotation arm. The bullpen will have to weather the short-term loss of closer Andrew Bailey, but it's deep and stocked with several malleable arms from both the left and right sides.

The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers won't roll over, but it remains to be seen if the Halos can turn around their offense or if the Rangers -- defending American League champions -- can enjoy a repeat performance of last year's superlative starting pitching and production from injury-prone sluggers Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler.

For the Oakland Athletics to win the American League West, they'll need to hit, pitch and stay healthy.

For the first time in five years, the Oakland Athletics will do these things better than anyone else in their division.

I've already promised my son that we'll fly up to Oakland for a playoff game if the A's win the division.

OK, OK...my exact words to Jalen?

"...when the A's win the division."

Be that team, Oakland.

Prediction: 88-74, 1st place

30 A's in 30 Days: Brett Anderson

Acquired: Traded from Arizona (with 1B Chris Carter, SP Dana Eveland, SP Greg Smith, OF Aaron Cunningham and OF Carlos Gonzalez) for SP Dan Haren (December 14, 2007).
Contract: Four years through 2013 (team options for 2014 and 2015).
Position: Starting pitcher; starting playa.

2011 Projected ERA: 3.53

2010 Season: In Anderson's final 16 starts of 2009 -- seven of which came against eventual playoff teams -- the rookie southpaw posted an impressive 3.03 ERA. Expectations were further raised when Anderson cobbled together a solid start to his 2010 season (2.35 ERA, no home runs allowed in 23 April innings) and signed a long-term contract extension. A-a-a-and then he missed most of the next three months with a forearm strain and elbow tendinitis. From July 30 (his for reals return from the disabled list) until the end of the season, however, Anderson threw 81.2 innings over 13 starts with a 2.98 ERA. It's hard to draw any hard and fast conclusions from Anderson's overall 2010 numbers. His strikeout rate per nine innings fell from 7.7 in 2009 to 6.0 last year, but his groundball-to-fly ball ratio took a sizeable step in the right direction (1.49 to 1.94) while his xFIP was essentially identical between his freshman and sophomore seasons. These stats don't tell much of a story in an injury-abbreviated season, so let's see what we can glean from these numbers: one Twitter picture plus two women and twenty singles in each hand can never end well.

2011 Over/Under: I know this is a violation of small sample size laws or arbitrary end points or some other statistical oversimplification...but, over his last 35 starts (essentially a full season's worth dating back to July 6, 2009) Anderson's ERA is 2.91. Every "sleeper" list (from fantasy leagues to AL Cy Young consideration) should have Anderson firmly entrenched towards the top. In fact, it's been nearly 20 years since any sleeper was effective enough to bring home a championship. I think we're long overdue. UNDER.

By the Numbers: 11 – The number of days after signing his contract extension on April 16, 2010 that it took for Anderson to land on the disabled list. While he and former A's starter Rich Harden aren't the least bit similar, I remember being ridiculously excited with the promise and potential of Harden several years back. In July 2003, m'man Smitty and I were in attendance at Angel Stadium for Harden's first MLB win. Unfortunately, Harden's legacy in Oakland was a litany of injuries. Hell, the Athletics signed Harden as a free agent this past offseason and he got hurt during the first week of Spring Training. He didn't even make this year's "30 A's in 30 Days" feature. Do you want this to be you, Brett? Do you?

Surefire 2011 Prediction: 20 wins. American League Cy Young Award.

Old School Rap Track for the Season: Nobody Does It Better, Nate Dogg featuring Warren G.

TBG Beats: "What's Love Got To Do With It", Warren G. featuring Adina Howard

I must confess...I'm an unabashed fan of Twitter. It's helped me get this lightly-read blog in front of a few more eyes and provides an opening into the creativity of some wonderfully thoughtful and funny people.

That said...Twitter can be a stupid jerk sometimes. If you're on it, you know its faults. And, none of them is worse than the intentionally-spread false celebrity death rumors that pop up there from time to time.

Earlier today, "RIP Jackie Chan" was a trending topic. I was in between meetings when I saw it and some obscure, possible blog fodder immediately crossed my mind. Thankfully, though, Chan is alive and well.

I like Chan well enough. I've seen most of his American movies and obviously appreicate his otherworldly stunt work. But, my most lasting memory of Jackie Chan is from a 15-year-old music video -- from a time when Chan, Warren G. and Adina Howard(!) were pop culture commodities.

I still can't decide if this is a really good bad song or a really bad good song.

Glad you're still with us, Jackie.

You too, Warren.

Adina's still alive, right?

30 A's in 30 Days: Brandon McCarthy

Acquired: Signed as free agent (December 13, 2010).
Contract: One year through 2011 (eligible for arbitration after 2011).
Position: Fifth starter; Mr. Glass II.

2011 Projected ERA: 3.65

2010 Season: In a year in which Texas won the American League pennant; Brandon McCarthy didn't pitch for the Rangers even once during the regular season or playoffs. He posted an 8.03 ERA in four Spring Training starts and found himself at AAA-Oklahoma City when April arrived. After four starts, he landed on the disabled list with a right scapula stress reaction. After missing a month, McCarthy returned to the mound on June 3rd. He pitched two innings before returning to the DL with inflammation in his right shoulder. On June 19, in his first start back, McCarthy pitched two innings...before visiting the DL again on June 22 with more shoulder inflammation. With a mastery of the disabled list that hadn't been seen in a Generation, McCarthy was recalled by the Rangers on July 29...and immediately placed on the 60-day DL! (OK, so Texas made the move to open a spot on their 40-man roster. I won't let the facts get in the way of a historically disabled season.)

2011 Over/Under: McCarthy is an extreme fly ball pitcher who, it's believed, can only be helped by Oakland's hitter-unfriendly ballpark. He's also suffered an almost comical list of serious injuries over the course of his career. In 2009, he suffered a stress fracture in his right shoulder blade...twice. In 2008, he didn't make his first appearance until late August after being sidelined with forearm inflammation. Three weeks later, his season ended with a strained flexor tendon in his middle finger. In 2007, he missed nearly a month with blisters on his pitching hand and then...a stress fracture in his right shoulder blade. Take the OVER on that projection (assuming it's ERA and not games started).

By the Numbers: 49 – Prior to the 2005 season, Baseball America named McCarthy the 49th best prospect in all of baseball -- well ahead of Cole Hamels (71), Ubaldo Jimenez (82), Jonathan Papelbon (91) and Huston Street (97) -- and anointed him the starting pitcher on their Minor League All-Star first team. "Generation K"? McCarthy's practically K-Pac!

Surefire 2011 Prediction: The most starts McCarthy has made in a Major League season is 22 (with Texas in 2007). He won't make 22 starts with Oakland in 2011. He just...won't.

Old School Rap Track for the Season: Survival of the Fittest, Mobb Deep

30 A's in 30 Days: Trevor Cahill

Acquired: Drafted in second round (2006).
Contract: One year through 2011 (eligible for arbitration after 2011).
Position: Opening Day starting pitcher; worst death stare ever.

2011 Projected ERA: 3.67

2010 Season: Cahill's 18-win season sparked an interesting debate between stat-centric sabermetricians and old-school fans. The mainstream consensus was that Cahill delivered on his minor league hype (#11 on Baseball America's 100 Top Prospects list in 2009) as the 22-year-old was the youngest Oakland starter to win at least 18 games in almost 30 years. He made the All-Star team and received a bit of Cy Young buzz as the calendar turned to September. On the stat side, the argument was that Cahill's unsustainably low BABIP was the reason for his "breakout" season and that he may not be as awesome as his ERA indicates. These facts, however, aren't in dispute: Cahill's groundball rate was 56%, he found success with his curveball last year after ignoring it for the most part during his rookie season and his strikeout rate was a mediocre 5.4 per nine innings. Old school vs. new school…sports-entertainment's least interesting feud rages on.

2011 Over/Under: Oakland manager Bob Geren has tabbed Cahill for the Opening Day start against Seattle. The "ace" expectations are in place which probably means the analytic A's are rewarding Cahill for last year's top-level performance and ignoring his less impressive peripherals. That projected 3.67 ERA seems awfully high for a groundball pitcher who's blessed with a strong defense behind him and a home park that generally doesn't help out hitters. Take the UNDER.

By the Numbers: 21 years, 251 days – Vida Blue was the youngest Opening Day starting pitcher in team history as he got the nod in 1971. Overall, OF Claudell Washington (20 years, 220 days in 1975), OF Rickey Henderson (21 years, 106 days in 1980) and 3B Eric Chavez (21 years, 119 days) were the youngest to ever start for the A's on Opening Day. Who was the oldest? DH Reggie Jackson (40 years, 324 days in 1987) followed by SP Tom Candiotti (40 years, 213 days in 1998) and 2B Joe Morgan (40 years, 196 days in 1984). Hey, YOU try writing 30 different player reviews without liberally lifting from the media guide once or twice…or thrice.

Surefire 2011 Prediction: Cahill will oppose Seattle's King Felix Hernandez on Opening Night. Hernandez -- in 17 career starts -- is 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA against the Athletics with 110 strikeouts in 114.1 innings. And, it won't matter. Oakland's kinda-sorta improved offense combined with the Mariners' inarguably awful lineup will result in a 3-2 win for Cahill in the first game of the season. He'll go six-plus innings, giving up one run and striking out six. The game will not sell out. Sigh.

Old School Rap Track for the Season: Same Song, Digital Underground featuring 2Pac

TBG Desert Travel Diary -- Part II: Museums, Water Slides and Champagne

20,000 nicky-nicky bruthas in the corner... Of the cell block, but they come from California... Population is none... In the desert and the sun... -- "By the Time I Get to Arizona", Public Enemy

Saturday, March 12

For the second straight Spring Training vacation, That Bootleg Family stayed at The Westin Kierland in North Scottsdale. Like everyone else in this challenging economy, we're trying to be as fiscally responsible as we can. However, there remain five items that are always worth overpaying for: (1) wedding photography*; (2) wedding florist**; (3) a really good steak***; (4) bras and panties****; (5) vacation lodging. Simply put, a seven-year-old boy needs room to be a seven-year-old boy. If my son Jalen wants to use a kid-sized padded bat and foam-rubber baseball while turning the "living room" area of our hotel room into Yankee Stadium, I won't get in his way. Literally. I'll be in the bedroom familiarizing myself with the NFL Network -- which my cable provider doesn't offer in San Diego -- or determining where the hair ends and extensions begin on one of the area's local news anchors. You can't do this in a Motel 6.

* -- Don't cheap out on wedding photography, my unmarried friends. The extra cost is directly connected to experience, professionalism and quality. I've seen some low-rent wedding albums over the years. I've also seen this.

** -- And, while I'm on a roll, men folk...let's agree to collectively avoid those $9.99 supermarket bouquets on Valentine's Day. Cool? Cool.

*** -- Growing up, the steaks at Sizzler were the gold standard for this gourmand. While I was in college, Black Angus was where the elite would meet to eat meat -- but, for me, not until payday. With a little more disposable income, I soon discovered the $35 bone-in rib eyes at admittedly pretentious locations such as Mr. A's, Morton's and Fleming's. And, they were good.

**** -- I needed a fifth "worth overpaying" item, so I asked Mrs. Bootleg. This was her contribution. I probably shouldn't put my wife's undergarment preferences out there for the world to read, so I'll just accept the virtual high-fives from my male audience and move on.

On Saturday morning, after our first night in Scottsdale, I tweeted:

Lifelong streak of restless sleep during the first night in a hotel continues. I blame the unfamiliar bed or the possible boogeyman under it.

20 years ago, I made the mistake of sharing the "unfamiliar bed" lamentation with my some of my best friends. They deservedly turned it into one of the longest-running, insulting in-jokes of our collective clique. Did it compare with the open shame of my other friends? M'man Smitty was obviously balding by the age of 16. Vig once admitted to a crush on Kate Hudson's grandmother. And, JP would probably like a mulligan for this 10th grade makeover.

I've eschewed my usual time-stamped travel diary format because the first four hours of my Saturday morning were spent in a parental tug-of-war with my son Jalen. I wanted to take him to the Musical Instrument Museum in Phoenix followed by an entire afternoon in the hotel swimming pool. Jalen, however, suggested a convoluted "swimming pool -- museum -- back to the swimming pool" plan. "We can do it", Jalen insisted. "The pool opens at 9:00 AM!" He then slipped on his swim trunks and forlornly stood by the front door. By mid-morning, he had me rooting for the return of Jim Crow.

The Musical Instrument Museum (MIM) was recommended to me by TBG reader and Arizona resident, Ms. Kristen. With Mrs. Bootleg shopping at the nearby Kierland Commons, I opted to roll the dice on Jalen's surprisingly agreeable track record with museums and my unfailingly enjoyable experiences while meeting TBG readers for the first time. Jalen was still pouting about the swimming pool when we arrived at the museum, but after five minutes (four and a half of which were spent on the below mixing board) Jalen asked, "Can we come back tomorrow with mommy?" He soaked up every exhibit, but absolutely lost his mind at the Experience Gallery -- a room full of instruments that the kids (and their dads!) are encouraged to play. And, Ms. Kristen couldn't have been nicer or more considerate in the few minutes we spent with her (continuing my eight-year streak of meeting readers who aren't killers or crazy people). MIM will never again be associated with an unlistenable musical experience. (For obvious reasons, the last musical instrument pictured is my favorite.)

We picked up Mrs. Bootleg -- who was weighed down with bags from local mom n' pop storefronts such as Ann Taylor Loft and Victoria's Secret. My wife even engaged in some self-medication during her retail therapy, treating herself to a champagne lunch as she mingled with North Scottsdale's beautiful people. The only things missing were theme music and the opening credits.

Jalen did get LOTS of quality time with the swimming pool and water slide. Since I'm a self-taught swimmer with terrible technique and Mrs. Bootleg is a black woman, our son is unquestionably the best swimmer in the family. I do, however, make the skin-tight Body Glove top rock, y'all.





Dinner plans with two of Mrs. Bootleg's friends were unfortunately scuttled. In hindsight, it might've been a challenge for Jalen to meet this couple since, as my son succinctly put it: "But, they don't have any daughters!" Instead, we scoured the casual dining scene and hit up Chick-Fil-A. I mention this because I tried the Spicy Chicken Sandwich Deluxe for the first time. Let's see how quickly I can get into "TBG Eats" mode. Current weight: 159.8 lbs. From Chick-Fil-A's website: a boneless breast of chicken seasoned with a spicy blend of peppers, hand-breaded, pressure cooked in 100% refined peanut oil and served on a toasted, buttered bun with dill pickle chips, green Leaf lettuce, tomato and pepper jack cheese. Decent, but when will the fast food industry recognize that processed cheese and fried chicken should be segregated today, segregated tomorrow, segregated forever? Grade: 3 (out of 5).





The evening ended with a hall pass from Mrs. Bootleg and beers at Papago Brewing Company with JP. Located in the middle of an extensive strip mall, its no-frills appearance belies the glorious high-end nectar that's brewed within. I spent the night with their El Robusto Porter. I was a little embarrassed ordering it sans accent, but my ersatz Spanish experience wasn't as awkward as ordering this.

Next: Good friends, good times, great beers, passed out!

30 A's in 30 Days: Tyson Ross

Acquired: Drafted in second round (2008).
Contract: One year through 2011 (not yet eligible for arbitration).
Position: Fifth starter? Long reliever? Harbinger of DOOM.

Note: Brandon McCarthy was named the team's fifth starter yesterday.

2011 Projected ERA: 4.31

2010 Season: I was at Phoenix Municipal Stadium with my family on March 18, 2010 when Tyson Ross introduced himself to the world -- by way of the 9,000 fans who were in attendance that day. Ross entered the game in relief and struck out seven Diamondbacks over three full innings of work. Maybe it didn't make him household name, but Ross' performance all but assured the 22-year-old non-roster invitee a spot on the Opening Day roster. Ross had been a starting pitcher in the minors (with no Triple-A experience and only nine appearances at AA-Midland in 2009), but he pitched out of the bullpen for Oakland in 2010. He was used in mostly low leverage situations during seven April appearances. On May 11, he was sporting a respectable 3.32 ERA over 19 innings with 14 strikeouts. Four days later...my son Jalen and I drove up to Anaheim to see our A's play the hated Angels. Justin Duchscherer was the scheduled starter. As the A's took the field in the bottom of the first, it was hastily announced over the PA system that Ross would be the emergency starter, replacing the injured Duchscherer. Jalen read the look on my face perfectly: "Are you sad because now we're gonna lose?" Ross was actually solid through the 3 2/3 innings, but as he passed the 50-pitch mark (which, to that point, was the most he'd thrown in any previous relief appearance) he collapsed...spectacularly. From that start until his final appearance in early July: 7.52 ERA, 20.1 innings.

2011 Over/Under: We can all agree that Spring Training statistics are meaningless, right? OK, with that out of the way...have you SEEN Ross' Spring Training statistics?! He's given up just one run in 15.1 innings! It remains to be seen if he's won the fifth starter spot (erstwhile White Sox and Rangers SP Brandon McCarthy was considered the front-runner as late as last week). If Ross pulls off the upset -- and his MLB innings are better managed than that night in mid-May -- I'm taking the UNDER.

By the Numbers: 1975 – Not that these things matter, but I'd be lying if said I wasn't curious: when was the last time the Athletics produced a homegrown, African-American starting pitcher? Off the top of my head, I think it was Mike Norris. He made his debut in April 1975 and won 58 games for the Oakland over a 10-year career. Norris was infamously plagued by drug problems and arm trouble -- missing six full seasons (1984-1989) due to one or both issues. He was one of my favorite players when I first became an A's fan and his 1990 comeback -- though, ultimately anti-climactic -- was a big deal to me. You only have to emulate SOME of this stuff, Tyson.

Surefire 2011 Prediction: Ross wears number 66 because he stands 6'6". This will be beaten into the ground by every opposing broadcast team when he pitches. By the end of the season, the only team meme mentioned more often will be "there's a LOT of foul territory here in Oakland".

Old School Rap Track for the Season: I Got 5 On It, Luniz featuring Dru Down, E-40, Richie Rich, Shock G, and Spice 1