Three Baseball Guys: ALDS/NLDS Predictions

From the men who brought you last month's discussion on Prince Fielder's ample antics… Out on the east coast is m'man Tom Daniels. He's a dismayed Mets fan who recently called into WFAN to propose a David Wright for Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez deal. In America's Heartland sits Cardinals fan Eugene Tierney. He just became a Facebook fan of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. And, y'all know me…


Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron: Everyone is quick to credit manager Jim Tracy with turning the Rockies around, but let's not ignore A's GM Billy Beane and his generous contribution of closer Huston Street (35 saves) and OF Carlos Gonzalez (.525 SLG) during the offseason. The Phillies are vulnerable at the back-end of their bullpen, but with an offense that bludgeons opponents like the 1995 vintage of Suge Knight, I like the defending champs' chances. Pick: Phillies in 4

Eugene: A rematch from 2007, only this time the Phillies are much better. Their hitters, featuring six potential All Stars, should be able to knock around the Rockies pitching, which is probably the weakest of the NL playoff teams. Pick: Phillies in 3

Tom: Full disclosure: the only Colorado Rockies games I saw this season were the unlikely four-game, last-gasp sweep by the Mets. The only question in a series in which one team is going to start Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Pedro Martinez is whether or not the bullpen can manage to put some outs together and get them through to the next round. I'm pretty sure they can, but I'm going to bet the Phillies' bullpen loses at least one game. Pick: Phillies in 4


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Aaron: See what happens when OF Matt Holliday gives a damn? He posted an ungodly 1.023 OPS after waking up from a peaceful 15-week sleep in Oakland. The Cards' offense doesn't walk much, hits with decent power and is tough to strike out. The Dodgers' pitchers don't give up home runs and strike out everyone under the sun. This has the feel of a series that won't be decided by the superstars. And, Tony LaRussa has been cranking out lousy bit players with a knack for timely hits since the days of Lance Blankenship. Pick: Cardinals in 5

Eugene: I'm nervous about this one. Torre is trying to neutralize the Carpenter/Wainwright duo by starting lefties Wolf and Kershaw; the Cardinals ranked 26th in baseball against lefties after acquiring Holliday and DeRosa (30th before the acquisitions). Neither manager is saying much about what will happen after that. The Cards also struggled down the stretch, but that was much like 2006, where they backed into the playoffs. Season Series: Cardinals 5, Dodgers 2. Pick: Cardinals in 5

(On a side note, Cardinals Shortstop Brendan Ryan is up for the American Mustache Institute's 2009 Robert Goulet Memorial Mustached American of the Year award.)

Tom: It seems like pretty much everyone is taking the chalk across the board in these series. That never happens. As Eugene noted, the Cardinals are horrifically bad against lefties and the Dodgers are starting two of them. And you can't even claim the Pujols factor when Manny's on the other side. I just have a weird feeling that if there's going to be an upset in the first round that it's this one. Pick: Dodgers in 5


Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Aaron: The Twins can at least hang their collective hats on the fact that there's been one constant this decade as it relates to the Yankees in the playoffs - the loss of at least one game in the Division Series, resulting in the typical fan overreaction and mass hysteria from the media. The universe will return to normal, shortly thereafter. Now, if only AJ Burnett and Jorge Posada could find love. Pick: Yankees in 4

Eugene: It really didn't matter who played the Yankees - both the Tigers and Twins would have been over matched. At least the story will be Pavano's return to New York and not Miguel Cabrera's taking BP on his wife. We will still hear about A-Rod's not being clutch at some point, though. Pick: Yankees in 4

Tom: Oh Carl Pavano, it's going to be a rough Friday. Everyone is going to focus on the fact that the Twins don't really have the pitching to cope with Pinstriped Wrecking Crew. Then again, we're also assuming that CC Sabathia's 8 postseason ERA is an aberration and that AJ Burnett's not going to have bad starts. Of course, the Twins' 0-7 regular season record against the Yankees doesn't give me great confidence in picking against them. Pick: Yankees in 3


Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels

Aaron: The Angels have dedicated their season to the memory of deceased teammate Nick Adenhart. The Red Sox had done the same for Jason Varitek. The Halos handily won their division again, but who in their rotation would you want on the mound in a must win game? Jered Weaver? Joe Saunders? And, ace John Lackey hasn't been all that dominating. Look for Boston to steal one in Anaheim, then crush the Angels at Fenway. The headlines will read "Boston Massacre". Has that been used before? Pick: Red Sox in 4

Eugene: The Angels have a line up that fits better in the NL. I'll be curious to see how they match up with the Red Sox pitching. While Boston has owned the Angels in the past, I think this is their year to beat them. They have a playoff experienced go to pitcher - Scott Kazmir; while he hasn't been as good as he was last year, I'd trust him as the go to pitcher. Pick: Angels in 5

Tom: There are a couple of red flags for the Red Sox this season. First and foremost, you can't anger the Baseball Gods by raising the white flag on the division and settling for the Wildcard in early September. Second, even though Jonathan Papelbon's ERA is still relatively impressive for a closer, his walk-rate is triple what it was in his previous seasons. While that might fly against the orderly confines of the AL East, one walk in the eighth or ninth inning against this annoying line-up is going to give Papelbon fits. I watched National League teams and the Angels destroy him this season. Let's also keep something else in mind: this idea of the Red Sox's ownership of the Angels comes from three past series. In two of those series, the Red Sox went on to win it all (indicating they were pretty good) and last year. I'm also going to mention that Scott Kazmir is probably going to end up being one of the best trades of the season. Pick: Angels in 4

This Last Week in TBG TV: September 28 – October 3, 2009

Community - "Introduction to Film"

The last few minutes featuring the unveiling of Abed's film was…I mean, holy sh*t, yo. My allergies even kicked in a little, making my eyes all red and watery. I wasn't feeling Pierce's (Chevy Chase) "sneeze therapy" routine, but Troy's little girly sneezes killed each and every time. Very solid episode. Hope there's more stories featuring the depth of the secondary characters this season. Grade: B+

The Office - "The Promotion"

Remember that episode a few years ago when Jim took it upon himself to re-jigger the office birthday celebration protocol and ended up alienating all of his co-workers? Yeah, this was the same thing – except spread out over an entire half-hour. Points, though, for Pam begging for cash instead of wedding gifts. Might I recommend a "money dance"? Mrs. Bootleg and I cleared $650 at ours. Grade: C+

Law & Order: SVU - "Sugar"

This week's most absurd SVU moment: We have a tie this week. The confession of a suspect who waived his right to legal counsel was halted by the DA for fear that the suspect was too traumatized for his confession to stick. Later, the same suspect convinced the detectives to remove his handcuffs so that he could give his daughter one last hug. The end result featured a lot more scissors thru the neck than you'd expect.

Cougar Town - "Into the Great Wide Open"

I am loving this show and I don't care who knows. The montage of cell phone photos had me wheezing – in a non-asthmatic way! I think! I'm still not feeling Grayson the neighbor, but every other character had a chance to shine here. Andy's "coffee reaction", Ellie's genuine interest in Jules' evening and the Cobb boys fire extinguishing the bouncer. Gold. All of it. Grade: A

Modern Family - "The Bicycle Thief"

The bicycle storyline delivered despite the telegraphing of most of the plot points. I'm a wee bit worried that Ed O'Neill seemed to be channeling an Archie Bunker archetype and Cameron n' Mitchell regressed right to the edge of their own two-dimensional character development. There's still plenty of time to work out the kinks here, so we'll give 'em a pass. This week. Grade: B+

Accidentally on Purpose - "Memento"

Actually, a pretty clever little bit of business here. This episode featured several flashbacks to last week's pilot, but with additional original material a la that "Lion King 1 ½" DVD from a few years back. Glad to see Zack's friends get some more screen time as they're a LOT less annoying than Billie's harpy squad. There was some sweet storytelling here, but this episode felt much more "sitcom-y" than the pilot. Grade: B-

Still on the DVR: FlashFoward, Law & Order

TBG Eats: Subway's NEW Buffalo Chicken Sandwich

Current Weight: 168.8 lbs.

When Mrs. Bootleg was pregnant with Jalen, she experienced some truly bizarre cravings. There was the time she came home from the store with a bag of 120 frozen fish sticks and a mason jar of tartar sauce. The next morning, she told me the craving had passed without her ever eating a single stick o' fish.

Another time, she sent me to McDonald's for a supersized order of french fries without salt. Not only was I forced to idle my car for 10 minutes in the segregated "drive-thru parking for inconvenient orders" section, but after one bite, Mrs. Bootleg realized what everyone else on earth already knew: a fry without salt is a crime against humanity.

And, then there was Subway. Mrs. Bootleg's six-inch turkey and provolone on wheat with "just a little bit" of mayonnaise and mustard, lettuce, onions, oil n' vinegar and salt n' pepper is forever burned into my brain. Regardless of whether you love or hate Subway, no one can deny the chain's nationwide popularity. All day long, their employees are preparing made-to-order sandwiches based on the unique preferences of each and every customer.

After just a handful of visits, the kids behind the counter at our local Subway had Mrs. Bootleg's "usual" committed to memory.

I once went three times for her in a single day.

I do not take pride in this.

The wife eventually OD'd on Subway. And, when Mrs. Bootleg is turned off on something, she never EVER goes back. Consequently, she's inadvertently turned Subway into my private lil' smack snack habit.

I do not dare bring a Subway sandwich home. This would lead to the wife openly wondering why I didn't make two stops so that she could be enjoying a hastily prepared non-nutritious meal, as well. As everyone knows, the "two fast food stops" benefit is only applicable to girlfriends (0 – 12 months of tenure)…not wives.

So, I can only eat at Subway whenever the wife's not around. Once or twice a month, I'll bring a sandwich back to the office on my lunch hour. I've been wolfing down their Orchard Chicken Salad sandwiches, recently, so I was pleased to see the chain's latest limited-time-only menu item was a low-fat Buffalo Chicken sandwich.

As always, my condiments of choice were lettuce, tomato, onions and salt n' pepper on 12 inches of white bread. I opted for a drizzling of low-fat ranch, too. (I know, I know, but I've never seen anything resembling blue cheese dressing anywhere inside a Subway.)

The chicken was coated in the most psychedelically-colored red sauce I've ever seen. On the "that sh*t might kill me" meter, it's a solid second behind this bit of red death. In actuality, the sauce tasted like one of those bad Frank's Red Hot knockoffs cut with ten gallons of tap water. The low-fat ranch dressing was even worse: runny with a sour aftertaste.

The sum of its parts was bland, forgettable and nowhere near "Buffalo".

Grade: -5 (out of 5) Calories (six-inch): 370; Fat: 7g

2009 NFL Pickery - Week #4

Last Week:

Joe: 12-4
Aaron: 12-4
Tom: 11-5

Season:

Joe: 34-14
Aaron: 30-18
Tom: 30-18

Detroit at Chicago

Aaron: Within the confines of our 24/7 news cycle ("Where EVERY story has an angle!"), last week's Lions win represented the heart of a fallen city. They'll still be picking up pieces of the Lions' collective aortas long after this one's over. Pick: Chicago

Joe: Dear Matt Forte: [shaking with unspeakable rage] Love, Joe. Pick: Chicago

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Aaron: At this point, I'm not sure I'd take the Cleveland Browns over FOX's "The Cleveland Show". Eh? Eh? Pick: Cincinnati

Joe: Once again, the intra-state rivalry that Ohio department of tourism takes great pains to avoid mentioning at all costs! Pick: Cincinnati

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Aaron: I love that Jags coach Jack Del Rio has pulled the plug on QB David Garrard's weekly radio show, thus depriving the medium's primary listeners (old white people) from interacting with a real live Black guy. You're part of the problem, Jack. Pick: Tennessee

Joe: Oh, Cam, Jack Del Rio's not the Jaguars' coach anymore. Remember, the team totally quit on him about four games into last season and he definitely got ... oh. Huh. Pick: Tennessee

N.Y. Giants at Kansas City

Aaron: Tampa Bay ... Kansas City ... Oakland. Quite the early season baptism by fire for the Giants, no? Pick: NY Giants

Joe: Don't forget the Redskins! Pick: NY Giants

Baltimore at New England

Aaron: Remember that Monday night game a couple of years ago when the Ravens nearly took down the undefeated Pats? This could be the most satisfying sequel since Rush Hour 2. Pick: Baltimore

Joe: There is nothing about this Ravens team that I don't like. Except for Willis McGahee's mooching illegitimate kids. Pick: Baltimore

Oakland at Houston

Aaron: Raiders fans might not sell out their home games and are blindly loyal to Al Davis, but they warmed my heart with the vicious, beer-fueled booing of JaMarcus Russell last week. I was with you in spirit, guys. Pick: Houston

Joe: Dear Steve Slaton: [Shaking ever so slightly less in unspeakable rage only because money you're not in my money league] Love, Joe. Pick: Houston

Tampa Bay at Washington

Aaron: How's that "we gots to get our own Mike Tomlin" strategy working out for ya, Tampa? Pick: Washington

Joe: By the time this season's over, losing to the Lions isn't going to look quite so much like the eternal embarrassment to the Redskins that it does now. Losing to the Bucs, however? Pick: Washington

Seattle at Indianapolis

Aaron: Five years ago, Peyton Manning was perceived as a gutless choker who couldn't win the big game. Today he's simply willing the Colts to victories all by himself. 2014 will be here soon enough, Tony Romo. Pick: Indianapolis

Joe: Wait, so you're saying the snap judgments of young quarterbacks aren't always accurate? What else to believe in? Pick: Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans

Aaron: I think this is the game that everyone thought the Jets were going to have last weekend. Everyone, but me, that is. Check the archives, I'll wait. Pick: New Orleans

Joe: The Bills' defense managed to keep New Orleans entirely in check for three quarters. The Jets' defense is a million billion times better. Pick: NY Jets

Buffalo at Miami

Aaron: Miami just lost QB Chad Pennington for the season. Terrell Owens is 'bout to lose his g*ddam mind. Sometimes, you gotta go with your heart and not your head. Pick: Miami

Joe: Weirdly enough, I'm going with my heart. Pick: Buffalo

St. Louis at San Francisco

Aaron: The 49ers have officially become the team I can't make any sense of from week to week. The Panthers have been that team for what seems like the previous 300 seasons. Pick: San Francisco

Joe: Luckily, I can make total sense of the Rams. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas at Denver

Aaron: The Cowboys are not a great team, but they should be good enough to expose a fraudulent Broncos squad. Pick: Dallas

Joe: God damn it. Is it too much to ask for you to be totally snowed by the Denver=GREAT, Dallas=AWFUL party line? Pick: Dallas

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Aaron: Say what you will about the Chargers during the Norv Turner era, but they've consistently played up (and down) to the level of their competition over the years. Pick: San Diego

Joe: Pittsburgh's having a down season, for sure. Three-game-losing-streak down? Not sure about that. Pick: Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Minnesota

Aaron: Brett Favre's first game against his former team + ESPN's sure-to-be measured n' restrained coverage = the universe collapsing on itself. Pick: Green Bay

Joe: Despite Green Bay's semi-struggles, Aaron Rodgers has actually been deceptively good. That being said, this would be a good week to have a GREAT game. Pick: Green Bay


Confidence Pickin' (with current scores)

Aaron: NY Giants (-9) over CHIEFS; Cowboys (-3) over BRONCOS; Chargers (+6) over STEELERS

Joe: NY Giants (-9) over CHIEFS; Titans (-2) over JAGUARS; Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS

Tom: Dallas (-2.5) over BRONCOS; Titans (-1.5) over JAGUARS; COLTS (-8.5) over Seahawks

NOTE: Since we're three different guys with three different lives, it's entirely possible that we may be using three different sources for spreads. Bottom line: if you're taking gambling advice from an alcoholic, an ex-con and a shady black guy, you've got bigger problems than some +/- inconsistencies.

This Last Week in TBG TV: September 21 – 25, 2009

Law & Order: SVU - "Unstable"

Run-on Plot: Black guy rapes a white girl and the guy may or may not be the suspect in a rape from ten years earlier in which another guy was convicted.

This Week's Most Preposterous Moment: Wentworth Miller guests as a cop who won't play by the rules. He slaps around a crack-addicted woman in front of her young daughter, before Detectives Benson and Stabler make the save. In the next beat, they task Miller with taking the daughter to social services, unescorted. And, the kid (said to be six-years-old) goes willingly without a whimper. I love this terrible show.

Moral of the Story: "There's still enough work in Hollywood for Black actors – two rapists and a crackhead in ONE episode?! Dyn-o-mite!"


Law & Order - "Memo from the Dark Side"

Run-on Plot: The shooting of a former Marine, presumably in self-defense, inexplicably leads to New York City's district attorney indicting the entire Bush Administration.

Liberal Agenda Factor (10 out of 10): I will never ceased to be amazed at how this show completely obfuscates the lawyers' weekly sh*ts on the Constitution by ramping up the left-wing rhetoric. Hell, I voted for the socialist NOT born in America and even I think the L&O writers get a wee bit sledgehammery, sometimes.

Moral of the Story: If you're pro-torture, the terrorists have won.

The Office - "The Meeting"

Run-on Plot: Michael Scott intentionally sabotages Jim's opportunity for a promotion, before realizing that Jim is not an immediate threat to his job and working with Jim to get him the promotion after Michael's initial sabotage was successful.

Good: The entire "Toby & Dwight, P.I." sequence was a hoot. Loved their odd bonding over old-timey trains (and slaughterhouses) with a terrific mistaken-identity payoff at the end ("Are you gonna eat the whole bag, assh*le?!")

Not-So-Good: "Inappropriate n' insensitive Michael Scott" has been done to death. The entire opening sequence involving Oscar and an upcoming colonoscopy was too long and not at all funny. Has the writing for his character evolved at all since the first season?

Pam & Jim's Insufferable Adorability Index (IAI): 1.5 (out of 10)…next to no interaction between them this week. Pam's RSVP problems produced a few chuckles.

Grade: B-


Community - "Spanish 101"

Run-on Plot: Jeff continues his pursuit of a snotty classmate while learning the error of his ways after verbally undressing Chevy Chase.

Good: The "Guatemalan protest" secondary story kind of clicked. The piñata representation of the journalist who was beaten to death is just the kind of dark comedy I'm hoping becomes this show's staple. Close second: the reaction shots of the African-American characters to "minstrel" bit at the end.

Not-So-Good: The Britta character is SO unlikeable and holier-than-thou that I'm actually rooting for the lecherous Jeff to see the error of his ways…in pursuing her. Also, 2009 Chevy Chase is…not…funny. Stop saying that he is, America. Stop it.

Grade: B

The Tee-Ball Chronicles #7: Spring Fall Training

My 5 ½ year old son, Jalen, began his third season of tee-ball last Saturday. Not sure I've mentioned this, but Jalen is playing on the A's. My son. MY A's. Anyways, the first day is full of boring administrative stuff (like me using my 168 lb. frame to plow through all the other dads so that I could be first to sign up to coach) and teaching the kids a few fundamentals. J's come a long way since he first picked up a bat. Here's his Fall 2009 scouting report:




Hitting: If anyone asks my kid which way he bats, he'll proudly proclaim "I'm a switch hitter". This is the product of two sad, sorry circumstances: (1) Jalen gets a kick out of imitating the entire awful line-up of the 2009 Oakland A's – righties and lefties – when we're just messing around with the bat and a ball. (2) I might've told the boy that I taught myself how to switch-hit in my own younger days. (And, last year, I crushed balls over the wall from both sides of the plate while batting against Jalen. I'm not bragging, but I obliterated his sh*t. Just killed it. Ask Mrs. Bootleg – she was there.)

Wait, where was I? Oh, yeah…J is not a huge fan of the tee, but at least he's finally started to pull the ball. Watching his slow-ass bat poke a thousand ground balls to the second baseman was just maddening at times. I don't wanna jinx the boy, but after Saturday's practice, he looked like the best hitter on the team. Oh, don't look at me like that. This is NOT just his dad talking. That was actually the chatter from the scouts and the agents who'd congregated around the snack mom's cooler full of juice boxes and apple slices.

Defense: See that picture immediately above? The one where Jalen appears to be casually watching a ball roll right by him? Yeah, that's pretty much his definition of defense. Before the ball is hit to him, he does everything right. I mean, you should see how he bends his knees! And, then comes the ball and it all goes horribly wrong. Fortunately, he loves running because if he's playing shortstop, you can count on seeing the back of his jersey as Jalen hightails it towards centerfield in hot pursuit of the ball that won't stop rolling.

Intangibles: Jalen's middle name really is "Henderson". These are the things that happen when your wife requires a c-section and still hasn't recovered from the drugs when it comes time to fill out the birth certificate. He insists on wearing superfluous eye-black on his face and unnecessarily diving just to accumulate grass stains. He's like the little Black union of David Eckstein, Darin Erstad and Eric Byrnes. Favorite postgame treat: chocolate chip cookie ice cream sandwich.

I think I've convinced him to wear the high green socks.

I can't wait until Saturday.

TBG TV: FOX's Animation Domination – 9/27/2009

Sunday's Rankings

(1) The Simpsons ("Homer the Whopper") - Not a great episode, but the best among a mostly awful cartoon evening. Loved all the comic book nods.

(2) Family Guy ("Road to the Multiverse") - 100 times funnier when "The Simpsons" used the same plot during a Halloween episode 100 years ago.

(3) American Dad! ("In Country…Club") - Comedic Vietnam War spoofs have been played out since "Platoon". Secondary story ("Barbara Does Celine!") kept it out of the cellar.

(4) The Cleveland Show ("Pilot") - Not a fan.


MVP - Comic Book Guy stays true to his convictions on "The Simpsons" season premiere. I'll graciously ignore that his "Everyman" character was a polite rip-off of this guy.

Quote of the Night - "Nutter Butters AND Oreos?! DAMN!", Cleveland Brown ("The Cleveland Show")


Current Standings

The Simpsons – 5
Family Guy – 3
American Dad – 2
The Cleveland Show – 1