Thursday, July 16, 2009
2009 Mid-Term A'ssessment: Outfield, Catcher, Etc.
Matt Holliday - LF: .276/.373/.419
What I Said in March: "I just can't shake this feeling that most of the 'he's gonna be fine [outside of Colorado]' talk is coming from the usual lemmings who think GM/messiah Billy Beane can do no wrong."
What I Say Now: Holliday has his defenders amongst the 800 or so A's fans left, so I'll happily concede that the numbers say he's been our best player at the plate this season. Those numbers DON'T explain why he's so obviously dialed back his effort in '09. He's content to flick pitches the other way, instead of driving them. He plays LF like everyone in New York said Bobby Abreu played RF. The kamikaze who nearly killed himself on that home plate slide in the one-game playoff in 2007 would rather go at 80% and preserve himself for free agency. He's our own Roger Dorn.
Mid-Term Grade: C-...The "he's our best hitter" position is damning with faint praise on a team so embarrassingly inept at the plate. He's miserable in Oakland and his '09 performance has probably cost him millions this offseason. He is, however, my son's favorite player. Hope a little emotional currency can make up the difference in your 2010 paycheck, Holliday.
Ryan Sweeney - CF: .271/.320/.357
What I Said in March: "Sweeney's a little overrated by A's fans who fixated on his kinda-sorta empty .286 BA last year and it looks like the White Sox were right about his power game never developing."
What I Say Now: Sweeney has become VERY overrated by A's fans. Credit where it's due: he's made huge strides on defense and covers all kind of ground out there. Offensively, his .677 OPS ranks 22nd out of the 24 everyday centerfielders who qualify. Twenty-second! The long-term deal given to Toronto CF Vernon Wells is considered one of the worst in the game, yet his OPS is almost 50 points higher!
Mid-Term Grade: C+...Sweeney is what he is: a starting outfielder for a team that has no better internal options. He's proven he can't hit lefties (.221/.299/.273 in his career) and refuses to take a walk. His offensive shortcomings will really be exposed with his move to RF.
Travis Buck - RF: .226/.287/.355
What I Said in March: "[T]his'll be Buck's last season in Oakland."
What I Say Now: The exact same thing. Buck committed the ultimate, unforgivable sin when he publicly questioned the organization after he was placed on the disabled list in late May. A few weeks later, the A's acquired OF Scott Hairston and demoted Buck to Triple-A for the umpteenth time in his A's tenure.
Mid-Term Grade: D...Let's be clear: Buck has NOT hit when given the opportunity for playing time. That said, his appearances have been so sporadic that it almost appears he's being set up to fail. Way to ensure that return on investment when Buck's eventually traded, GM Beane.
Jack Cust - DH: .232/.322/.411
What I Said in March: "I like Cust more than a lot of A's fans, but I've got a feeling that there'll be more valleys than peaks for him this year."
What I Say Now: In Cust's first 10 games of the season, he was hitting .333/.488/.545. Since then – in 72 games and nearly 300 plate appearances – he's hitting .220/.297/.394. If Jack Cust isn't taking walks AND is hitting home runs with glaringly less frequency, it's time to cut bait. He's making $2.8 million this year and won't get any cheaper.
Mid-Term Grade: D+...The things that Jack Cust did to make himself a cost-effective (and just plain ol' effective) ballplayer have begun to erode. And, we haven't even touched on his glove, which turned to dust long ago. I still like Cust – he was my son's first autograph, what can I say? – but I no longer want him on my team.
Kurt Suzuki - C: .293/.336/.417
What I Said in March: "Suzuki's [2009] projection is virtually indistinguishable from his 2008 stats, but I think he takes a step forward."
What I Say Now: His slight decline in OBP has been offset by a nearly 40 point leap in SLG. Suzuki is only two doubles and two home runs off of his respective totals from all of last season. He's not quite All-Star worthy – despite the protestations from the more myopic members of the A's fanbase – but he's well on his way.
Mid-Term Grade: B+...I'm the first to say that a catcher's influence on a pitching staff is often overrated, but Suzuki's been done some fine work with the kids in our rotation. His defense is already top-notch and with another season or two under his belt, Suzuki has the chance to blossom into the best all-around catcher in the game. This assumes Joe Mauer retires at the end of this season.
And, the rest…: Reserve OF Rajai Davis (.257/.333/.354) might've assured himself a roster spot for the rest of the season by shaking off a miserable start to hit .319/.402/.472 in his last 72 at-bats. Landon Powell (.225/.291/.380) has been playing with an injured hamstring since mid-May. Thankfully, he's only had to play in 13 games since mid-May.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
2009 Mid-Term A'ssessment: Infield
Jason Giambi – 1B: .192/.331/.365
What I Said in March: "If Giambi stays relatively healthy and frequents the line-up as he did with the Yankees in 2005-06 and 2008 [his] OBP could nose towards .400."
What I Say Now: There were a lot of A's fans – myself included – who believed signing Giambi was a no-risk proposition: if he hit, we'd be getting a bargain and if he didn't, it was just a one-year deal. No one expected Giambi to completely fall off the cliff. He's overmatched at the plate by just average fastballs and his defense at first base is actually worse than his hitting.
Mid-Term Grade: D...On the short list of worst free agent signings in team history. Giambi's presence has interfered with components of the since-abandoned rebuilding process and set back this franchise for at least one more season. He's got a bobblehead giveaway day in his honor on August 21. Great planning, Oakland.
Adam Kennedy – 2B: .291/.353/.444
What I Said in March: "Assuming he's healthy, this will be the last full season [Mark Ellis] plays everyday with the A's."
What I Say Now: Kennedy came over from the Rays in early May after Ellis injured his leg on the basepaths and in his first 15 games, AK put up a line of .441/.507/.644. This prompted all sorts of crazy talk – even for A's fans – that Kennedy "brings energy" to the team and should be signed to a multi-year deal and should make the AL All Star squad. Meanwhile, I was the only A's fan alive not smitten with his fluky small sample size of success.
Mid-Term Grade: B...Since June 1, Kennedy has hit .237/.291/.349 and his career-long inability to hit LHP has followed him into this season (.558 OPS). Since Ellis returned on June 28, Kennedy has been our starting third baseman. Your 2009 Oakland A's, ladies and gentlemen!
Orlando Cabrera – SS: .262/.299/.345
What I Said in March: "Offensively, Cabrera's skill set seems more suited to the National League, where 180+ hits/season – absent any discernable power or on-base percentage – has more value."
What I Say Now: Since June 1, Cabrera has hit .296/.323/.408. Good for him. He's also spent most of the first half loafing to first base on groundballs, lazily fielding his position and appears to be in receipt of a season-long pass from A's manager Bob Geren absolving him of any accountability. Cabrera didn't sign until March, came to camp out of shape and has finally played himself into half-way decent condition. All for only four million dollars!
Mid-Term Grade: C-...At least Cabrera finally has motivation to play like he gives a damn. He's rumored to be on the trading block and is basically auditioning for a 2010 contract from someone between now and the end of the season.
Bobby Crosby – 3B: .210/.295/.317
What I Said in March: "The A's will wait until every other team's roster is set, before releasing Crosby at the end of Spring Training."
What I Say Now: Crosby's $5.25 million salary combined with his public snit at changing positions meant the A's were stuck with the guy. And, never let it be said that a professional sports franchise – with an unquestionably uncertain future – has any problem cutting off its nose to spite its face. Oakland keeps trotting him out there (.179/.237/.283 in his last 119 PAs) and looking past his awful defense on the hot corner.
Mid-Term Grade: F...Our Boy Genius GM signed Crosby to a five-year extension back in April 2005. Here's what A's fans got in return: .238/.302/.362. Only three more months of this abominable nightmare before he's accepting the Padres or Nationals non-roster invite to Spring Training.
And, the rest…: After signing a two-year contract in the offseason, 2B Mark Ellis (.219/.272/.343) landed on the 60-day DL in May. Not to be outdone, 1B Nomar Garciaparra (.253/.286/.367) has served two stints on the disabled list and has now been reduced to pinch hitting with one or two starts per week. And, 3B Eric Chavez played in eight games before undergoing major back surgery for the second time in his career. Sigh.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
2009 Mid-Term A'ssessment: The Bullpen
Andrew Bailey: 4-1, 1.92 ERA, 10 saves
What I Said about a different relief pitcher in March: "Meet your lone Oakland A's representative to the 2009 All-Star Game."
What I Say Now: I actually like the "every team must be represented" All-Star rule, but Bailey deserves his All-Star spot, regardless. After a lights-out April as a middle reliever (1.15 ERA, .060 opponents BA!) the A's moved him into the closer's role vacated by Joey Devine's elbow immolation. After last year's overhyped novelty act of Brad Ziegler, it's refreshing to see a closer out of the "throw the ball through a wall" mode.
Mid-Term Grade: B+...Bailey's on pace for just under 100 innings pitched which is a sign of how inexperienced our rotation is and an indictment of Bob Geren's inept bullpen management. The A's have a recent history of overworking their closers – Octavio Dotel and Billy Koch come to mind – so, here's hoping they've learned from their own history.
Brad Ziegler: 1-3, 3.27 ERA, 6 saves
What I Said in March: "There's simply NO way he can repeat his run prevention from the year before. Instead of blame, Ziegler will be defended with excuses that reference his mechanics or his release point or a hidden injury."
What I Say Now: Good ol' predictable A's fans and beat writers. Ziegler gave up two runs in his first three appearances of the year, so it HAD to be because the WBC threw off his routine. He posted a 6.10 ERA in May, so it HAD to be the nine days he missed from April 26 – May 4 with flu-like symptoms. Ziegler can't retire lefties (.333/.425/.435) this season. He couldn't do it last year, either. I said that in March, too.
Mid-Term Grade: B...Over the past four weeks, Ziegler's ERA is just a tick over 2.00. The guy is a strong set-up option out of the 'pen, but not nearly as good as he looked last year. Just don't say that in front of my fellow A's fans.
And, the rest…: Hard to believe that Cubs fans practically ran Michael Wuertz (5-1, 2.95 ERA) out of town last year. He's got 53 Ks in 42.2 IP and his power-slider is almost unhittable when it's working. In March, I wrote that Russ Springer (0-1, 5.04 ERA) would become our most reviled middle reliever before Memorial Day. In back-to-back appearances on May 20 and 23, he failed to retire a batter, giving up four runs, combined. Check your calendars, kids. Santiago Casilla (1-2, 6.75 ERA) insists on overthrowing everything. At 92-93 mph, his stuff is pretty nasty. At 95-97 mph, his stuff is pretty flatty. Journeyman Kevin Cameron was only around for 11 games, but it was long enough for Mrs. Bootleg to get me his jersey t-shirt for Father's Day!
Monday, July 13, 2009
2009 Mid-Term A'ssessment: Starting Rotation
Trevor Cahill: 5-8, 4.67 ERA
What I Said in March: "[Check out] Cahill's decrease in strikeouts per nine innings; increase in walks per nine innings and decrease in K/BB ratio after he was promoted and pitched 37 innings at double-A [in 2008]…he's really not ready yet."
What I Say Now: In 13 of his 18 starts, Cahill has given up three earned runs or less. But, his K/9 (4.3), BB/9 (3.8) and K/BB (1.15) numbers are still a bit troubling. He's a sinkerball specialist who gets KILLED when he can't keep his pitches down (18 home runs allowed) and his "let the hitters hit it" approach hasn't been helped by the A's ambivalent defense.
Mid-Term Grade: C...he was obviously rushed to the bigs, but his dumpy appearance and lack of mound presence make me wonder if the lumps he's currently taking won't do long-term damage to his development.
Dallas Braden: 7-7, 3.12 ERA
What I Said in March: "Braden finally LOOKS like he belongs in bigs. [He's] potentially a huge fantasy sleeper if he gets decent run support."
What I Say Now: Braden's allowed three earned runs or less in all but one of his 18 starts this season. If you toss out that six run/five inning performance on May 16, his ERA would be 2.76. The A's have scored just 3.6 runs per start for him, though. He's tough as nails and he'd have 10 wins with even an average offense behind him.
Mid-Term Grade: B+...I love this kid. On May 10, he took a first-inning Vernon Wells line drive off his pitching hand, stayed in the game and went six-plus innings. I'm not even going to mark him down for using this as his theme music.
Brett Anderson: 5-7, 4.86 ERA
What I Said in March: "Singer-songwriter Brett Anderson's reign atop Google search results for "Brett Anderson" will come to an end. Eat it, England!"
What I Say Now: The only thing I'd write differently would be to change "England" to "New England". On July 6, Anderson became the first rookie to shut out the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park since Jim Abbott in 1989. The home plate umpire had a "pitcher's zone" all night, but if you believe that one start can mark a player's arrival (I don't) then this was it.
Mid-Term Grade: C+...Anderson has looked dominant at times (3-0, 1.86 ERA in three starts from June 20-July 6) and looked like a 21-year-old rookie (6.32 ERA in May) for longer stretches. He threw four more scoreless innings in Tampa Bay yesterday. Five more and then he's arrived.
Josh Outman: 4-1, 3.48 ERA
What I Said in March: "He'll almost certainly start the year in AAA-Sacramento as a shaky insurance policy for Oakland's shaky rotation."
What I Say Now: Justin Duchscherer's injury and Sean Gallagher's ineffective, incompetent healthiness opened the door for Outman to make the Opening Day roster. From May 1 until his elbow exploded on June 19 (I was at that game!), Outman's ERA was 3.12 with a fastball that hit 95 mph. A rare "miss" in my abbreviated player-projecting career.
Mid-Term Grade: B...Outman was just starting to trust his secondary pitches when his season ended a little less than a month ago. I loved the fact that Outman was – wait for it - outpitching the "can't miss kids" in our rotation and was the polar opposite of everything I hated about Fat Joe Blanton – the guy he was traded for. Hurry back.
Vin Mazzaro: 2-5, 3.59 ERA
What I
What I Say Now: Thanks to the A's preseason acquisitions on offense, Oakland has scored 1.77(!) runs in games Mazzaro starts. 1.77 runs! Is the plural of "run" even appropriate here?! Mazzaro, 22, pitches with an uncommon confidence at his age and – even better – he talks like Tony Danza circa the seventh season of Who's the Boss: still stereotypical Italian, but diluted with a decade of speech therapy.
Mid-Term Grade: B...10 years ago, Tim Hudson made his Major League debut. Even though he and Mazzaro are nothing alike physically or stuff-wise, Hudson frakkin' owned the mound and was the unquestioned leader of the A's rotation well into the deca…uhh, until 2004. I'm calling the same path for Mazzaro. Until 2014. Ugh.
And, the Rest…: If I never see Sean Gallagher (1-2, 8.16 ERA) or Dana Eveland (1-3, 8.00 ERA) in an A's uniform again it'll be too soon. For those of you scoring at home, we gave up Rich Harden and Dan Haren, respectively, to get 'em. Oh, and we unloaded Nick Swisher for Gio Gonzalez (1-2, 6.29 ERA). Jesus, this is depressing.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
AiAA: Castrol Edge
It was 93 degrees here in San Diego today. After getting up at 4:00 AM to go into the office and continue work on the largest proposal effort I'll touch in 2009, I came home to spend time with my son, Jalen.
He and I watched the A's/Rays game, a little bit of the Padres/Giants tilt (San Diego got a hit, Vig! I think they won the game!) and then, after a father and son road trip to 7-11 for a nutritious Wild Cherry Slurpee and a Nestle's chocolate chip cookie ice cream sandwich, we went outside and actually played some baseball.
Jalen likes to pretend he's the Oakland A's. He'll hit right-handed like Matt Holliday or left-handed like Jack Cust and he even strikes out like everyone else in our goddam lineup. Meanwhile, I have to be whatever team pops into his head. Today, for example, he insisted I play the role of the National League All-Star team. I am not making this up.
The point, again, is that is was 93 DEGREES outside. We were out there for 90 minutes as I tried to remember my imaginary National League All-Star team batting order by the third or fourth "inning". But, whatever…I indulge his fantasy because it's baseball and we've been doing this every Sunday for several months. Even though, he NEVER lets ME be the A's.
I was feeling pretty proud of myself – mostly for the 10 pounds I sweated away this afternoon – but, partially in appreciation of being a parent. I looked forward to settling in for the evening, when I walked in on Jalen watching the below commercial:
When it ended, Jalen turned towards me, cackled manically and punched me in the stomach as hard as he could while
Homer Simpson (calling into the nuclear plant): "You heard me, I won't be in for the rest of the week. I told you! My baby beat me up! No, it is NOT the worst excuse I ever thought up."
Friday, July 10, 2009
TBG (Finally) Sees: Up
Worth the Wait? (Y/N): Y
Three Things I Liked:
(1) After the introduction of young Ellie and Carl – a tomboy adventurer and her apprehensive new friend, respectively – there an absolutely bee-YOO-tiful sequence (without a lick of dialogue) that shows the two getting married, living their lives and constantly putting their biggest dream on hold. I can't remember ever seeing so much hope and heartbreak crammed into a minute-and-a-half, but there ya go.
(2) The "Russell" character hit all the right notes with me. His exuberant earnestness could've been written as the trite foil to the much older Carl, but he's given a bittersweet backstory that makes the words "My mom loves that game!" into one of the best lines of the movie.
(3) I'm a sucker for the "epilogue" sequence that follows most Disney/Pixar films. There are some especially satisfying payoffs here for those of you willing to stick around for a few minutes of closing credits.
Three Things I Didn't Like:
(1) There's a Pixar short film that runs before the feature presentation. Partly Cloudy FINALLY answers the age-old question of "where do babies come from?", but not even the sticky sweet ending could save this unnecessarily abrasive piece of animation. And, this isn't one of those "hypersensitive parental reactions to cartoon violence". I just didn't dig it.
(2) OK…this is one of those "hypersensitive parental reactions to cartoon violence". Did we really need the villain chasing the good guys with a shotgun in the climactic sequence?
(3) Mrs. Bootleg and I are doing our best to ensure that Jalen does not grow up with his father's
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